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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • cooldoncool cooldoncool Jun 29, 2006 6:20 PM Flag

    Don't put too much weight on Fido's

    13.8% ownership, because Fido is run by jokers that make stupid mistakes like today's Elan sellers, the Ty US approval sellers, the AC sellers and the Lehman Brothel sellers. In another word, their buying is not Gospel. In fact, they just blew $255,000,000 on a rejected sleeping drug called Indeepdodo and their armies of PHD researchers and MD tipsters have been eating crows in NBIX.

    Based upon what they did, they dumped Elan at the bottom after BM and they bought NBIX at $60 when the PFE pumpers pumped without sleep and J. Cramer hypes flooded the Street with nothing but great writeups and clinical results for Indeepcaca. Their timing was one of the worst in history. Therefore be careful and don't read too much in Fido's buying or you'll be in deep dodo and have sleepless nights.

    Fido could be a contrarian indicator, IMHO.

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    • ryokanana@sbcglobal.net ryokanana Jun 30, 2006 9:18 AM Flag

      Anyone know what Fidelity's average share price is??????

    • You will always get some sheep that can't think for themselves.

    • There's a very basic tenet in Wall St. and that's the basic understanding that 'institutional buyers' don't just influence the market ... THEY ARE THE MARKET. So they dictate the price of shares.

      Why are you comparing ELN to NBIX. You don't compare them. ELN has approval of Tysabri on both the US and EU market. This time Fido hit the target. And they will keep on accumulating. Why do you think the prices have been held down. It is because accumulation will continue until Fido holds 25% or 30% ownership of ELN. They have been accumulating and the trend has not stopped at all. That alone shows how you need to take Fido pretty seriously.

      At a certain point in the future, they will control the float and thus the price of ELN shares.



      Subj: Don't put too much weight on Fido's
      By: cooldoncool
      Date: 06/29/06 06:20 pm

    • Everyone is entitled to their own opinion...

      I see Fidelities actions/ marked interest in ELAN differently.

      1) Fidelity has a respected position and there are firms that watch what fidelity does and often follows suit. (Do they make mistakes... sure... would most people characterize them as 'jokers'...I think not.)

      2) Fidelity KNOWS ELAN, BIIB quite well. Knows their management, history, products, strengths,weaknesses etc.. Has bet on them heavily in the past. Got burned. All this makes an investment company VERY CAUTIOUS about jumping back in (just look at WS in general towards ELAN).

      And Yet.... they've added over 33 million shares (in the 14-18 pps range) in the past 4 months and at last count have ~55 million shares.

      3) They liked ELAN when Ty had 1 year data/ fast track and when AN-1792 was deemed a failure secondary to brain imflammation with no forward potential for AD.

      NOW Ty approved in US and Europe has a cushion of 1:1000 for pml cases and much better knowledge of Ty mechanism related to pml with culprit clearly combo/ immunocompromised and NOT ONE CASE OF MONO ... EVER...Market/anal's estimates on Ty sales clearly have huge upside surprise potential (which will be great for pps)
      Rumors of success in AAB-001 (phase II) and 2+ years closer to a potential 10 billion + market with no competition or alternative tx. Phase III as early as this fall/winter. Anal's/WS still have ZERO factor of AD in pps for ELN!

      Agree that too much weight on any one factor relating to stocks is a reasonable caution.

      I, however, would be more concerned with NOT PUTTING ENOUGH WEIGHT behind Fidelities massive accumulation of ELAN in light of their history and due diligence. JMO & GLTAL

    • yeah thanks for the heads up, lol.
      and yes their buying is not gospel
      and yes they make mistakes like they
      did on nbix. so what, fido buying only
      reinforces our own beliefs as to what elan
      can do in the future. nothing more nothing less.
      bfd it doesnt hurt us thats for sure, lol.

    • Fido could be a contrarian indicator, IMHO.
      -------------------------------------------------
      Large institutional buyers are a contrarian indicator?

      Is THAT what you are saying?

    • FIDO simply never does what the original poster suggested. They cannot, by practicality or by law manipulate a stock. They are passive investors.

 

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