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Elan Corporation, plc Message Board

  • oxledge oxledge Jul 29, 2008 8:17 PM Flag

    ELN's tysabri worth $30 a share

    all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

    so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

    the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

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    • < look at the $6 billion increase in BIIB's market cap this month .... it gets from its 50% interest in tysabri .... mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for ELN ...thats $30 a share >

      Do not understand your logic but clearly, there is a mathematical mistake here.

      Increase of BIIB value is only $4 billion, not $6 billion. Even using your strange logic, instead of $30 for ELN, the fair price should only be $20.

      Current price is about $20.

      You are a genius.

    • all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

      so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

      the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

      THAT ALONE IS A STRONG BUY

      • 1 Reply to wilsonlinda75
      • all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

        so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

        the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

        Hmmmm Great Buying time here

    • Ox
      Up,up Copaxone!

    • Stop playing with yourself. It'll put hair on your palms. ELN is a dog and you know it.

    • wwzg@sbcglobal.net wwzg Jul 30, 2008 8:35 AM Flag

      all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

      so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

      the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

      Looking very good

      • 1 Reply to wwzg
      • wwzg@sbcglobal.net wwzg Jul 30, 2008 9:56 AM Flag

        all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

        so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

        the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

        Looking very good

        Get in on the lows

    • wwzg@sbcglobal.net wwzg Jul 30, 2008 8:16 AM Flag

      all one has to do is look at the $6bill increase in BIIB's market cap this month based on the incredible numbers it gets from its 50% interest in ELN's tysabri......

      so now ELN is down 15-20% from $24 last month before the incredible tysabri news (thats about a $2 billion mkt cap drop) while BIIB gains $6 bill from having half of ELN's tysabri....

      the mathematics on tysabri with est +100,000 patients in 2010 is for +$1 eps for ELN and minimum 30 p/e on that earnigns number now...thats $30 a share....and forget about the value of all of ELN's other drugs under development

      I'd say 32.00

    • Your information is flawed. Biogen's market cap is only $20 billion and Tysabri is not more than half of their total product set in terms of value. Therefore, Elan's share of Tysabri is worth about $10 billion max. That equates to about $20 per share.

    • Great post. I haven't owned ELN since the FDA hearing days on Tysabri but I'm picking up some this morning.

    • wwzg@sbcglobal.net wwzg Jul 30, 2008 12:14 AM Flag

      TRADE QUALITY 75%, Good
      Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.

      TARGET 1 Price: 36.94 Profit: 9.5% , for a typical rally.
      Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 32.43 Loss: 3.9%
      Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.4 : 1 - Fair

      TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
      Stocks may quickly rise to Targets when there are not many resistance areas blocking the way.

      TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +5.1% at 35.46 ± 0.71, type single, strength 5
      +9.5% at 36.94 is Target 1

      TARGET 2 Price: 38.14 Profit: 13% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.3 : 1 - Good

      good signals too.

      • 1 Reply to wwzg
      • wwzg@sbcglobal.net wwzg Jul 30, 2008 7:44 AM Flag

        TRADE QUALITY 75%, Good
        Good trade quality is a combination of good profit, profit/loss ratio and target potential.

        TARGET 1 Price: 36.94 Profit: 9.5% , for a typical rally.
        Stop Limit/Trailing Stop Limit: 32.43 Loss: 3.9%
        Profit/Loss Ratio: 2.4 : 1 - Fair

        TARGET 1 POTENTIAL Excellent, there are 1 resistance areas on the way to Target 1.
        Stocks may quickly rise to Targets when there are not many resistance areas blocking the way.

        TARGET 1 RESISTANCE +5.1% at 35.46 ± 0.71, type single, strength 5
        +9.5% at 36.94 is Target 1

        TARGET 2 Price: 38.14 Profit: 13% , Profit/Loss Ratio: 3.3 : 1 - Good

        good signals too. .....

 

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