What if after the two year absence, Ty's return in 2006 started the clock ticking for the two year time frame needed for PML cases to develop? What if 2010 shows a huge increase in PML cases being reported? Why hasn't ELN and BIIB put out some updates on what they think is going to happen...What about the SEC investigation that Elan is involved in? IMO there's a lot of negatives with this small company. Has anyone on Wall Street put out an updated a price target on Elan?
What if it turns out all 10 new cases are european. That would leave just 3 US cases out of 23. At that point it is not a Tysabri problem but a European regulatory problem. Even the FDA made BIIB say the chance of PML increased with time of use of Tysabri. But if proper monitoring in the US limits the cases to 3 while 20 cases turn up in Europe, then time of use can't be a factor. The clock is ticking on the EMA because if they don't adopt the same procedures as in the US they would look stupid. It's hard to imagine that they wouldn't tighted up their system in the face of the success in the US. It is now clear that the PML fault does not lie with Tysabri but rather with the loose EMA standards. Once the world realizes this, Tysabri will take off. Perhaps its already started with the EMA press release pointing the blame at themselves.