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  • Kalanus Kalanus Jan 18, 2000 9:42 PM Flag

    Elan's JV Biotech

    On the subject of Elan's junior biotech partners
    I did some research in their SEC documents and
    found the following. They own 17%of TGEN, 20% of LGND,
    40% of SHM, 18% of CTRX, 5% of EMIS, 8.6% of DRAX, 7%
    of NGEN, 14.1% of DOR, 30.4% of IOX, and 5% of CYTO.
    At today's closing prices these holding are worth
    368 million dollars of which approximately 209
    million has been added since the Oct-Nov lows.
    instance TGEN has gone from 1.5 to 6.5, LGND from 8 to
    16.25, NGEN from 8 to 34, and EMIS from 13 to 40. Of
    course what goes up may come down but it is a nice gain.
    Also I doubt if I found everything. For instance I
    could not find out what happened to their FUSE holdings
    (FUSE was bought out by Biovail).
    Regards all.

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    • It is a pleasure to read posts by interested,
      intelligent investors. The comments by losers as to how bad a
      stock is are a dime a dozen (Jim-Jones, et al).
      have been watching ELN for sometime and finally got my
      feet wet at 26 1/4, it could go lower, but it also
      could move up at any time so I decided to get in now.

      This isn't my first bio, so I know how slowly things
      can go, also how quickly when the completely expected
      announcement finally is made.
      Glad to be with you all!

    • both. But in the meantime, they are giving cash
      away on the options boards when the stock falls to the
      mid 20's. You have to be conservative to avoid this
      easy vig particularly if you think this stock is a
      buy. Sell the puts expecting the stock to rise before
      long. Join me when we see 25 again. Takes less capital
      and you always can cover if price goes too low.

      Another favorite is WMI. Just sold my third lot of April
      17.50 puts. Second lot expires Friday. Only half point
      away from pocketing 100% premo. If it closes at 17, I
      pocket 65% of premo. Pretty good risk reward. That is
      $14k in 6 mos. just for writing insurance on a beaten
      down value stock.

    • I have heard reports that the CEO
      900,000 shares-that would be over $22 million
      of His
      Own Money invested in Elan. The insider
      page on
      Yahoo shows no records of this-where is
      it possible
      to get confirmation?

    • Great post! I couldn't have said it any better.
      Does anyone think that what is happening to elan has
      never happened before? A recent example that comes to
      mind is novell. There was talk of technical analysis
      and sure enough it broke through all the moving
      averages. I bough at 20 thinking it was a good deal when
      sure enough it went to 16. Everyone was scared and
      then in a short time it went to 40. I know novl is not
      a drug co. but everyone needs to be patient and we
      will have our day.

    • I'd like to add a hearty "YES" to what he just
      said! This board changes dramatically every time ELN
      trades between its most recent range.
      When the
      stock is going up, its like we're on the sitcom
      "Friends", when it goes down its like we're on "Jerry
      Springer", only without the scantilly clad ladies. Although,
      I have heard how some of you dress while chatting
      on this board...


    • ...I agree: the reason Elan is trading at $26 and
      not at $40 right now is as a result of a lack of
      conviction that they will deliver on the product launches.
      Is it worth $26 per share? Or something lower or

      I tend to be bemused at how the tone of this
      board changes as a function of Elan's share price--one
      minute we're a cheering section and the next we're all
      calling for management's resignations: a funny and unique
      business is the equity market--you want to acquire
      inventory (let's say Elan shares)--mark the price down and
      panic people into selling to you; you to sell inventory
      (let's say Elan shares)-- mark the price up and panic
      people into buying from you. Think human nature will
      ever change?

    • I'm sorry, Diogenes, but this performance is
      hardly short-term. I think everyone can be forgiven some
      venting. IMO, it is the doubt about ELN's ability to
      manage product launches in a timely manner that makes
      people a little chary about this stock right now.
      Granted, we may all look back on this period and laugh
      about how nervous some of us were. And I do own scarier
      stocks, like MCK, for example.

    • Thanks for the summary

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