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Middleburg Financial Corporation Message Board

  • focuseddd focuseddd Dec 18, 2012 3:46 PM Flag

    The technicals are intriguing at worst!

    While this is certainly a fundamental story with the hope that Sokol sells out to BB&T for 1.5x BV plus a few more dollars for the trust company and mortgage operation, We all doubt that the existing talent is enough for a rollup and he doesn't appear to want to take charge from Omaha or Wyoming. But at the moment this is setting up for a significant breakout over the next couple of months. We have formed a massive triangle and the potential for one of O'Neil's cup and saucer bottoms; the count is to a minimum of 20 but on a sellout closer to 30. I suspect the IB's are knocking on his door as we speak and the rumors may be that he is talking. It fits in BB&t like a glove and the return to them is a lot higher than making mortgages. Worth watching closely or committing here. I am in fully in for the eventual but seems to be heating up now. Did you see the recent $500mm debt deal by BB&T . I think its a war chest for acquisitions. Good Luck David.

    Welcome any opinions or knowledge about the Tarp sale of Warrants!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I don't see MBRG selling out to anybody. This is going to be Sokol's baby. The income stream they get from Southern Trust is like a gold mine that nobody knows about. They are opening new branches every year, growing the deposit base, and waiting for the D.C. suburb growth to envelop Loudoun County. Why do you think insider ownership among directors is so strong?

      • 2 Replies to neutzling
      • i gave a lengthy rebuttal establishing my reasoning but for some reason it was not posted . I shall wait several more days to see if it shows up as I am certainly interested in building a dialogue on this message board

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Actually I don't think the Directors ownership is so strong! Maybe the Lee purchases are okay but even the former CoB sold on the cheap. I say former because at a distance he seems to have considerably less influence. Have you followed DS's career at BH and read his book. While he obviously doesn't like the personal exposure of running a public enterprise this is a TYPE A personality with connections throughout the Street.When you say its his " baby" , what the heck does that mean? He has two ways to capitalize on on his current holding of $31mm. He either makes it grow ( non- passively as you postulate) or he sells out as I suggest. As you know ,he rescued this bank from doom and TARP and while the prospects for growth in that corridor are above average he suggested they close branches and ultimately will have a hard time competeing against the larger regional and national operations with cost efficiency, broadscale services and the more strenuous reporting requirements. It does not fit his history or psychological profile to allow this investment to be run by some nice but largely unsophisticated country bankers. I am intimately familiar with the Investment/Trust division and have seen it as a real loser. AUM growth and results since the purchase are deplorable and even with the recent hire give evidence of management limitations. I suggest you read the book " Pleased but Not Satisfied " to get a handle of Sokol's personality profile. He either has to take a more active role soon or contend with a sub-par performer. The Loudon Ctny position is pretty strong but worth more to an acquirer than Middleberg. I believe that DK has some desire to exhibit his investment prowess by capitalizing on his wise decision to rescue MBRG , but not sit on the sidelines looking for the demographics of the area to eventually help him realize a profit thats in the market now for a takeout. .When you see him take a more active role in management I'll back off on the liklihood and logic of selling out to a larger bank , but until then it seems the best course of action. BTW, your comments reveal a possible employee whose employment might be vulnerable in the event of the more logical takeout scenario.

        PS Since you have been the most active and consistent poster on this board I will value a continuing discourse and have in no way intended to insult you or question your analytical skills . I merely and strenuously disagree on the best course for Middlelberg and thus the most likely course for DK.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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