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CGM Focus Message Board

  • pdorminy pdorminy Oct 30, 2007 12:03 PM Flag

    CGM Focus.....

    Does anyone think it's too late to get into this fund? I notice it's had one heck of a ride, but I like the fact the same manager has been at the helm since 1997, and the holdings seem to be pretty well diversified. Is it now trading at a premium to it's net asset value?

    Sincere thanks,

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    • If you want diversified (and everyone should want diversified), then buy index funds.

      I buy Ken Heebner's funds, however, to beat the market, not buy the market.

      For what it's worth, my strategy is: 50% index funds, 25% to Ken Heebner, and 25% for me to blow with my own stock picking folly.

      As far as the evaluation of the funds goes, consider that he turns over the stocks at about 300% rate per year. This means that today's fund is not last month's fund. The manager is the only thing steady here.

      AFAIK, open ended funds always trade at NAV. Only closed-end funds will vary.

    • This is what people don't understand. It's never too late to get into a great fund. Think of it this way. If there is a beatiful woman out there that you know for sometime. Although she is dating or married to someone right now, it's never too late to ask her out. You will never know until you ask or in your case invest.

    • I was thinking the same thing a few days ago and jumped in last wed. (Oct.31) and made some $$$ already. My opinion is it will continue to grow with this current management.
      Wish you luck,but I wouldn't wait to long. I will continue to watch and probably invest again shortly. ( when $$$ is available)

    • You might think there is no correlation to the market, because Heebner has a huge portfolio turnover, but another way of looking at it is the fact that nobody picks stocks 100% right all the time and is his luck about to run out. Its like when a sports team wins 20 games in a row.....they could win another 20, but the odds are diminishing. Or when a team loses 20 in a row and your team is about to play them......they are due to win one.

    • If you're looking to get into CGM right now, CGMRX might be a better choice. Heebner hardly ever has done below category avg. This last quarter (YTD & Q4) CGMRX is below category average. I'm confident that Ken will quickly change that!

      Watch him speak today on CNBC @ 2:15PM

    • "Does anyone think it's too late to get into this fund? I notice it's had one heck of a ride, but I like the fact the same manager has been at the helm since 1997, and the holdings seem to be pretty well diversified. Is it now trading at a premium to it's net asset value?"

      I think your trying to overanalyze. A statistical variation from the mean is a good thing in this case. Also this fund cannot trade at a premium to it's net asset value. Only closed end funds can do that. The concentration in certain industries may be a good thing if depending on the path of the US economy and global events. The manager of the fund has done a spectacular job identifying key economic trends early and finding stocks that will benefit. I�m invested in this fund right now because my feeling is there is above average risk in owning the overall market right now. Time will tell if that is true or not. In either case CGMFX may still outperform the market indexes.

    • "holdings seem to be pretty well diversified"

      if there is one word to characterize this fund then it is "non-diversified"

 
CGMFX
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