I remember Mr. Heebner being interviewed on one of these financial TV networks right at year's end (probably CNBC), in the Manager of the Year vein, and, if I recall, when asked what he was essentially shooting for in 2008, he said something like 20 (or 30?)% would be great. Having seen the worst January in years, I am thinking two things: 1) 20% ain't that bad (in fact, really good); and 2) doing the daily watch on this thing may just drive me crazy.
So, what are you sages expecting this year, and any advice on how to calm down and essentially ignore this thing for a while (or should that even be a game plan). Thanks
Someone posted a link to a KH interview last week - it was about a 16 minute clip, and he said "he'd be happy with 10 to 20% this year". I agree with him.
My financial plan calls for a return of 8.5% (average per year) from cash/equivalents holdings to equities. CGMFX will hopefully pull that average up to where I need it to be. A 10% year is still a great return - of course relative to everything else.
This market is extremely frustrating right now. However, the Feds dramatically lowering rates combined with the Congress passing an economic stimulus package - will help lead the housing market back. Think about the wave of people refinancing their fixed rate and ARM's over the next six months and the stimulus that will provide. IN addition, home equity loan rates are ticking down. This will also help people realize they must pay down these debts.
Once the market gets back to basics instead of trading on fear - smart money managers like Ken Heebner will figure out many ways to deliver fantastic returns. His track record over the last decade proves it. Hang in there ...
"...lowering rates combined with the Congress passing an economic stimulus package - will help lead the housing market back."
Just who is left to buy those houses? When you had the lower rates the only ones left that hadn't bought were the subprimes. Who would lend to them now? There were also the speculators and lenders looked the other way on residency "requirements" when they were buying. You think that'll happen again anytime soon. You have at least another year before you'll see normal trends starting, that's starting, to return again, don't even think this year's home buying season will be anything good. It should wind up to be the bottom though imo.
"...the wave of people refinancing their fixed rate and ARM's over the next six months and the stimulus that will provide."
Agreed you'll see some of that, i don't know you'll see all that much of it though. You had a lot of refi prior to the rate raising, not that long ago. Those rates were pretty darned low and we just may not see them get that low again. If we don't get that low who would refi at 5 1/4% when they have a fixed at 4 1/2 or 4 3/4, i forget just how low they got. As for arm's, whoever didn't change over to fixed before probably didn't qualify. Would they qualify now? I have no idea. What was the mtge trend lately, arm or fixed? Again i have no idea but it' something i think should be taken into the equation.
Those that bought over the past few months, yes, you'll have a great chance of refi there, but they won't have much equity built up, if any at all. Given what's happened i think there's a better chance they are just about at best even, at worst losing a bit.
I truly hope you're right. A good economy means a good stock market for longs, and i am a long. I just don't think it's gonna come as soon as you do though. Me, i'm hoping for no worse than a flat year for the market, and that's including a decent rise from around late october on through the end of the year as a looking forward 6 months from then. 6 months from now and investing for it now, i just don't see it being as good as you do.
I hope KH gets 20% on the year, which means much more than 20% as he'll have to make up for january. It'd be fun to see it, and profitable, but i'm certainly not expecting it, even from him. Long term, and that's in multiple years, that's a great return. Short term, shit happens.
>>>and any advice on how to calm down and essentially ignore this thing for a while
IMO, A good plan is to decide the total amount you want to invest in this fund, and then dollar-cost average into it.
(Periodic investments over a stretch of time).
I takes a lot of discipline... but this strategy keeps you calmer.
If you are over-invested already, you may want to sell some, and then go back to making smaller periodic purchases.
just a thought
Be Patient ! We have a good manager and I do believe the market is being driven by sentiment and headliners than actual fact. We are in a good sector with a manager with an excellent track record. There was really no place to hid. Do you really think all these bussiness fell off like the market ?? People have a tendencey to over dramatize and there has been a great deasl of profit taking. Short of the world ending I do believe this fund will fly.