Carter Worth says Oppenheimer is all in and Whitney (also Oppenheimer) says these banks go lower... OK so maybe they are not all in the banks, but if they are going lower so is everything else. Doesn't make sense...
I'm having to pick up my own trading and options strategy to offset Heebner's losses in my funds, long only doesn't work here HEEBS!
<<I'm having to pick up my own trading and options strategy to offset Heebner's losses in my funds, long only doesn't work here HEEBS!>>
I think it is great you at least know how to use options to offset your losses. I don't understand them, and really wish I did... especially now. Riv said something like... it might not make you a lot of money right now, but it protects you from downside risk. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
Hi Jarl. I already have it, has been a core position for a number of years, though i have traded it in non-core. As per what i just posted to Keith, yes, it has everything you'd want but customers for now, and the product customers definitely want. Besides the problems i noted in that other post you also now have energy back down, making the dreamliner less appealing off that factor, competition from airbus over price that much stiffer.
I thought condit made the right move picking the dreamliner over increased size, and particularly over the increased speed route with its excessive fuel usage. I had that argument back on the ragingbull ba board a number of years ago, when people were promoting the speed factor when ba was contemplating going that way. I took issue with the fuel usage, they felt people would be willing to pay more for the increased speed.
Was sorry to see condit go, then stonecipher lose the tanker contract. That's one i gave a lot of credit to mccain even though i was a shareholder. If he wasn't so contrary to me on the war and on where tax cuts should be given i would've voted for him just off the ba thing alone.
I love vestas myself, have for a number of years. Just never thought it was cheap enough to buy. Couple of years ago i did research on a home wind system. That was more in contemplation for costa rica than for my ex-'s house though i did the research based on firms here. Got prices, except for installation costs, from various dealers' websites, and for various size units. For years i've thought about looking into the economics and aesthetics of fabricating and installing a series of small fan blades full length across the top peak of the house's roof and/or down the side. Regarding the krone/euro thing, would that be due to advantages of belonging to the eu? Free trade kind of thing? I don't see any particular currency advantage so if that's there it's just something i haven't seen or just haven't recognized if i did.
Your friend's right on boeing being a trade at times, definitely not a hold, both with the delay in the dreamliner and the airline cutbacks in flights. I've been trading with the covered calls but that's about the best i can do now without letting go of the stock altogether, and i just don't want to do that. Just why i don't know, other than probably love.
"It's gonna have to be financials first, whenever it happens. I doubt first quarter. I used to not pay attention to that old saw, financials leading, but for sure this time around it has to be."
"New equity, as an investment imo energy. It's a sure play though it's once again a long term play, 2 years and out. Your ng thought i think is dead on."
Also agree. The Terranova observations were very interesting. December might be a great time to look at various energy plays depending on where the overall market stands at that point.
"I just don't see anything other than biotech offering chances at quick rewards for now, as well as quick pain."
I am with you and Leuthold on this one.
"i'm hoping to get ba much lower."
Don't wait too long. This company has virtualy everything you would want. This stock is a almost a cetainty to a real winner over the long term. What a great company and what a great stock to own.
My trading friend just sold some Boeing.
Although one would think financials I will let Heebs play it for me.
I have bought CS, C, JPM successfully as trades within the past month and then left.
I can't keep up that pace.
One of the reasons I bought VWDRY the wind "best of breed" is I suspected that it was a hedge fund trendy pick, and they recently oversold it compared to other wind stocks. Despite present economy, they have 2 year backlog. If they give up their Krone currency in Denmark and embrace the euro this stock soars.
It's gonna have to be financials first, whenever it happens. I doubt first quarter. I used to not pay attention to that old saw, financials leading, but for sure this time around it has to be. Again, whenever it has to be. Vilca was right, it'll have to be home mortgages/prices that stabilize everything once they stabilize themselves. I think jpm is leading the way on this. I just hope they do it right. I really would hate to see lowering of mortgage principle but it just may be the only approach which works. I think it sets a bad example though and could lead to compounding the problem when those who keep paying yet are still under water themselves, house price vs mtge principle, get to thinking.
New equity, as an investment imo energy. It's a sure play though it's once again a long term play, 2 years and out. Your ng thought i think is dead on. Oil won't die because it's used for so many things, not just energy (i wonder what they use as a replacement for when supplies actually do become exhausted; naturally they'll wait for the last moment before fully developing something). Solar and wind, i caught some discussion on it this morning, charlie maxwell was on and he's recognized to be among the best, and it echoes our thoughts. The initiative is dying with cheaper oil now.
As an aside, hormats was also on and he says what i think is true. A stimulus package is needed. I think castro's just against pelosi so whatever she says he'll be against. Right castro? Think deep, tap your emotions, before you answer 8>). Without the prior one you can bet wmt would be trading in the 30's today.
For the quick play for new equity, a lot's gonna depend on the hedgies i think. The burn they took in energy, and right now no promise of fast money, there's no ability to create a bubble high for them again. Maybe currency plays? You really have me on this one. I just don't see anything other than biotech offering chances at quick rewards for now, as well as quick pain.
Me, i'm hoping to get ba much lower. The dreamliner's been delayed for so long and the stock's dropped so much, but i want it even much lower. I have a couple 100 shares left of it, was up to about 500 but sold out 300 in the 80's and 90's, those 200 i keep as they were bought in the 20's last time. Oligarchy, big cost barrier to new competition, and they have the lead in the future with the dreamliner. Only that lead might slip away before the global recession's done with and they can sell planes with any frequency again. Plus if they ever need a bailout there's no question they'll be staying in business. Our biggest source of trade income. They did once almost go bk i know of. I think it was when they were developing the 747. They were on the brink. If the 747 had been a bust it'd have been lockheed buying them out, not the other way 'round.
You are all over the place.
Give me your sector pick for the first quarter.
There does not appear to be a clear contender and certainly no positive catalyst.
Where will any new equity participants enter to try to capture market positioning?
"He has held Brazilian banks ITAU and BBD, but that was two quarters ago."
Yeah. I have to believe he got rid of them along with the commodities that back them. I used to have several of the europeans, ing, lloyd's, i think that was lyg, and sold them off or got taken out off calls early, about a couple of years ago, and have stewed about it ever since seeing their run-ups after. Now it's like having escaped the black plague.
I did start to build a position in rbs though, once i got down to the 4's. Added a bit around 1.20 apparently, must've had a standing bid since i saw yesterday i'd added sometime in the recent past, and i'm pretty sure i put in a bid yesterday in the 1/2 buck area after seeing i had already added recently. Was going to pick up some sub $1 yesterday but put the bid in once i saw i already did add. I am thinking about ing and lloyd's again though. I don't see any much difference, from what i've heard but didn't get into well enough to have an informed opinion, between the support they're getting and what we're giving ours. I do think ours are the better bet right now since it does look to me we'll repeat the scenario of us emerging out of recession first.
Rbs i took on as i have some of their bonds since 1999-2000 and those are holding up well enough, so i figure that means the bond mkt doesn't see much chance of their folding up altogether, though they could go the way of a wachovia, getting taken over cheap. But the stock is already cheap so i figure it's worth a shot. A small shot.
So far Meredith is a one trick pony who knows the only way to extend her 15 minutes is to have the most extreme bearish outlook of any bank analyst. The views she stated are based on her assumptions of real estate falling more than 40% from the peak. I guess you weren't aware that her one buy recomendation this year in the financial sector was Lehman Bros. All her fame is from her one call on Citigroup. At least as of mid year her performance this year was -16% which was right at the average of bank analysts.
I would trust Heebner's view over Meredith's. She hasn't even been in the business through a market cycle, but talks like the ultimate expert.
So far Meredith is a one trick pony who knows the only way to extend her 15 minutes is to have the most extreme bearish outlook of any bank analyst. The views she stated are based on her assumptions of real estate falling more than 40% from the peak. I guess you weren't aware that her one buy recomendation this year in the financial sector was Lehman Bros. All her fame is from her one call on Citigroup. At least as of mid year her performance this year was -16% which was right at the average of bank analysts
Ignore Meredith Whitney's views at your own peril. She is the most respected analyst on the street. She's the axe. She has maintained a bearish stance all along when other people were calling bottoms in financials and she has been right. If she did recommend Lehman, obviously she was wrong but no one is 100% right all of the time. Give Whitney the credit for having done a phenomenal job.
<<I guess you weren't aware that her one buy recomendation this year in the financial sector was Lehman Bros. >>
No, I did not know that. I'm really kind of shocked to hear it. I didn't know she recommended buy ANY financials.