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CGM Focus Message Board

  • challenge_your_limit challenge_your_limit May 27, 2009 6:10 AM Flag

    balanced portfolios didn't help

    when the market crashed, now did they?
    So understand the skeptisism.
    So what sectors that will lead the surge, if any, up and away out of the depths.. we've already advancwed a long way since the low..
    Any thoughts on the sectors that will lead.. todays market?
    I'm sticking with buying commodity related industrial producers, which have worked, although the S&P did even better yesterday.
    SSO looks very good and rather balanced in terms of sectors. Good luck to all.

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    • Well, my EXDAX held up pretty well -- down only maybe 15%, if that much, at the March low, and it's almost back to where I bought it. Two other balanced funds of mine are right with it, PRPFX and GLRBX -- both also very near to break-even. They went down more than EXDAX but have recovered more also.

      However, I also had FBALX, and it tanked badly. And in checking the other day I found that LCORX, which I don't hold, was way down also.

      So I think the issue is which balanced funds are in question.

    • Regarding "balanced portfolios didn't help when the market crashed, now did they?"

      You seem to be inferring we should try to pick the right sector.
      It's important that you let out the asset class discussion which also called for timing based on moving averages.
      One timing signal advocated by Meb Faber is that when asset class is below the 50/100 and 200 day moving averages, short term instruments are the place to be. He advocates scaling a part in at 50 and 200, or when 100 and 200 are reached.
      He also has said to be an asset class one month after it has had a terrible month, but first waiting one month.
      His published journal abstracts say they recover and outperform and statistics back it up.

    • Commods down today. Monsanto cuts earnings forecast. Well, as long as they keep making barley, hops and yeast, I'll be okay.

    • SINGAPORE, May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude prices shot above the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday for the first time in more than eight months, adding to some analysts' convictions that oil has found a new price floor at $60 a barrel.

      The U.S. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) front-month continuation contract last topped its 200-day moving average, a popular guide on support and resistance levels, during an intraday spike on Sept. 22 but dipped quickly below since.

      Analysts say the clean break above the 200-day mark -- effective at $62.17 on Wednesday -- may trigger another rush of buying from technical traders or computer-driven commodity trading adviser (CTA) funds that look closely at charts.

      After settling on Tuesday at $62.45, just cents above the 200-day mark, prices spiked to a new six-month high of $62.95 in after-hours trade early on Wednesday. They later cooled to $62.32 a barrel at 0438 GMT.

      "I have to say that $60 is now a good support level. This market should move between $60-$65 now, but we also have to see trade volumes later, to see if the movement is actual or not," Ken Hasegawa, commodity sales manager with broker Newedge, said.

      At 0440 GMT, volumes for front-month U.S. crude stood at 3,563 lots, typical for Asian trading time before the build-up in activity during European hours later in the day.

      The last time oil prices stayed above the 200-day moving average for a sustained period of time was from mid-May 2007 to early-September 2008, when crude prices more than doubled to hit the peak above $147 a barrel last July. (Reporting by Chua Baizhen, Editing by Ramthan Hussain)

      Long oil CVX trade the range. New position VGPMX. Good luck. MOO is a great holding.

31.69-1.54(-4.63%)Jun 27 6:45 PMEDT