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Trinity Biotech plc (TRIB) Message Board

  • Howie58 Howie58 May 13, 2005 6:15 PM Flag


    I haven't posted here for years but returned to see that the eternal optimists (Dolly and the Heiku poet) aren't habituating.

    I broke even with Trib at about $4.50 average cost. My first doubts about this firm came when it broke down from about 7 before the bubble burst in 2000.

    Prior to that time, earnings grew. Then they kept issuing shares and taking over the throwaways of other firms and to quote George C. Scott from Dr. Strangelove, I began "to smell a big commie rat."

    1) I think that a lot of their stuff will eventually be thought of as commodities. . . that's why the long anticipated AIDS test didn't generate any market action.

    2) Eventually investors become disgusted with companies that grow revenue but don't grow earnings. EPS growth is what drives stock prices. This company can hit 200 million or a billion in sales, but what difference will it make if they don't translate into EPS.

    I am not here to bash. I wish all in here good luck, but I suspect your investment will not be rewarded. This company is no longer a growth story, and if they keep diluting, it can't be a value play either. I think it will simply stagnate.



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    • Wow! Howie you pop back in and so does Ace, both in the same day. Your observations are exactly right. Dolly is still around, I think, but quiet. Most of the others are gone, except Faulk, lunatic and a couple others. I kick myself for jumping back in at all but it is so enticing hoping that just maybe they will finally get it and put numbers to the bottom line. Hopefully next time you check back things will be happier.

      • 2 Replies to robertmm1961
      • Robert:

        Thank you for kind greetings. I am not a CFA, so my comments may not be on point. At a buck this may be enticing...maybe.

        Meanwhile, in the low price bio (I mean real bio) space, TTP, NVD, or KAL may be more interesting speculations.

        By the way--was Hibergen a bust??? Or is that topic taboo on this board?

        All the best, in all endeavors, to all on the board! (endeavours for those on other side of pond).

      • Still here and still long. Sold a lot during spike of 2000 and traded very profitably during the 4th quarter of 2003 and then made some money on the spike of FDA. ost recently sold some at 2.50, then bought it back at1.71. I keep anticipating that earnings growth will start to exceed revenue growth but management has been so obssessed with revenue growth alone that earnings have not been an objective. Irish are not dumb, just thick.

        One fine night over a pint they will have a Eureka moment and realize they can buy more earnings and revenue if there were a higher share price and then there will be a share price increase rather than our spikes,

        I have been wrong about TRIB a lot (should have sold all on the spikes)but have made some money and do expect to make more.

    • "EPS growth is what drives stock prices"

      EPS growth in and of itself is meaningless. The key figure is double digit EPS % CHANGE every quarter (single digit EPS % change merely garners a collective yawn from the market).

      Moreover, merely meeting EPS expectations is not good enough these days either. A company HAS to deliver BETTER than expected EPS just to MAINTAIN its pps (or it'll get HAMMMERED).

    • well... there is good news and bad news. the good news is that this stock will have periods when it goes up. the bad news is those periods are brief and completely unrelated to any fundamentals. your analysis is probably right about the company but irrelevant to the stock. the stock is completely manipulated by the assholes in management and the market maker brokers who work with them to raise capital by selling stock to unsuspecting suckers. when they don't need to raise capital, like now, management drive the stock down to as low as possible without being delisted. they issue themselves lots of stock options at these low prices. then, when they need to raise capital, they start working with the market makers and brokers to raise the stock price. after they do a financing. the stock starts falling again immediately and the cycle repeats itself. basically, you need to buy before a financing and sell on the news of any financing or FDA appoval. that's it. i would guess they drive the pig back to around $1, where it will be a great buy back to at least $3 before the next financing or approval.

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