What is driving this price movement? I think the TRIB is an ideal takeover candidate for one of the big boys - good product line, profitable, cash on-hand. A big diagnostics firm could get more value out of it because of their marketing muscle.
With the most current trading range of 18 and 19, if someone wants to takeover this company, they have to offer $28 or more to have a more realistic chance to do it becasue TRIB can go up on its own to $24 to $25 in a year or two with more FDA approvals and higher revenue and profits in the pipeline.
I think you're on the right track. If these tests get approved on the timeline they think they will, and if they get approvals in the markets they want for them (US, China, etc), any offer goes much higher, IMHO.
People are looking at this sleepy little stock that was under 10 dollars a few years ago, and 1 dollar 4 years ago and they recognize the potential. That's why there is an almost vertical climb in the PPS in the last few weeks. It's grossly undervalued where it is now and the risk reward opportunity is huge.