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  • MSSMWP MSSMWP Dec 19, 2003 5:27 PM Flag

    i realize that TA on small float is ...

    i realize that TA on small float is probably futile. but that strong desire to push all things into TA has crept its ugly head to me, as so i squander more time in pursuit of this drivel... but folks the TA looks awful on a 3 month viewing. just awful.

    we have a broken Momentum line since 12/1, we have a MACD line that basically drops completely off the bottom indicator which has been in decline since early November, Bollinger Bands are well above ourselves, RSI -- well why bother..., the gap in +DMI versus -DMI is so great it makes a 7-10 split look easy, and so forth and so on...

    now at first that may make a shareholder puke, but imho we are looking at the end of the sell off. typically the 4th quarter is when stocks make their runs, but we know IDSY to be against the grain as she did all summer by staying above water then.

    so imho the TA says we certainly can test the waters below 6 but there will be a launch almost automatically of new buying. imho this is because that great October when we touched 10 saw a money flow that hasnt left the stock.

    but TA on a low float, in addition to not wanting to TA a small cap like IDSY anyway, could make any TA prediction moot.

    but even dbtunr and some others that knew/wanted IDSY to go further down to a more reasonable entry price will be enticed to restart that oscillation we have grown so accustomed to. it looks that wish will come true! good call on when to short, when to cover, and when to buy -- a well read play imho.

    and of course this is my same wish with UNA and SBL in the near future -- i want/need to see these stocks come down. i wont short them for risk fears, but have the same hopes there.

    looking back at the 2nd quarter with 13F's filed by big boys, all the activity was selling. that 13F gets filed around 9/30/03. i also saw that Barclays which imho is one of the more speculating big players out there (it was if they followed me in 2000...grin nudge grin) is in both UNA and SBL. Eagle Asset Mgmt which is our 5th largest big boy (i get tired of typing "institutions") got into SBL for 124k shares around that time. maybe something there maybe not...

    looks like most activity in October that ran to 10 all came from retail as expected.

    getting ready for the next tide up when even sellers turn into buyers and we can repeat this march up with an expected selling return in April or so... hell you have to have a reason to be shorted in the first place, people dont short beaten down stocks unless they have an accounting red flag. i reviewed the 10Q and such and found little weakness.

    also in this flurry of spouting, imho SI.TO looks a lot like IDSY. but at 50 cents.

    god speed,

    mssmwp

    p.s. just thinking outloud... some of the things typed above even i could spank around.

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    • hey genius, its under $6 right now

      Tax loss selling could easily move this lower.

    • if we pull back the curtain that runs trading in IDSY shares we do indeed see a small balding man with an Atari 2000 Joystick in his one hand and a set of Furry Die in the other hand... the only monitor he is looking at is a 12" B&W screen. There is a device surrounding him that looks a lot like a Train Depot Switching Station, or a Sound Engineer Board... the labels on the buttons say things like: "Button 14: piss off shorts" and another one that says "Button 29: include walmart in all posts", yet another one with "Button 119: illiquidity." I will post the link of course to this observation...

      he does not wear a Santa Hat considering our 52 week low was 12/27 of last year... seems Christmas isnt as giving to IDSY longs as is July 4th... perhaps a Patriotic stock?

      days lke today are typical IDSY and i swear this thing is more addictive than Altria Group shares in North Carolina tobacco fields... whatever that means? but we fly up 6% then fall down a penny 20 minutes later...

      is this a pink sheet thing? can we just meet somewhere near an airport hotel and exchange our shares without paying any commission?

      god speed and a merry holiday season,

      mssmwp

    • yeah, the up volume is just crushing. Like some jack ass bought 5k at market and sent the thing up 30c.

      Wait till some last minute tax sellers do the same on the down side.

    • tauvros,

      right again on contrarian Thompson, after that first educational post on what the Thompson does and how it is just a game more than a tool. but i did notice how that game is played -- where a seller comes in as a buyer to test the waters. all gameplay is useful when understanding the motivation in a Sun-Tsu kind of way....

      you know that market makers comment along with that post were in full humor...

      hey tauvros -- take me a step further in how you use the data collected from i-watch. by tagging it with the index info what are you watching in that group? for example the i-watch lights up on UNA sell cells, when in fact we assume that it is a buyer looking falsely (or deceivingly more aptly worded) at the signals the market will take to Buy. but that info to me is less significant after the day has closed. is there any long term impetus here? would i track UNA's testings to see where the stock is going? or is this moot to the fact you can feel out stock price direction in a myriad of more telling ways, from TA to just a plain old bid/ask history? or better yet, only a dog thinks he can hunt with that precision anyway...

      also, and hypocritically, why the HOLD on IDSY. yeah yeah i know the Long-Term Sentiment Disclosure here is crap, but it does for me issue a general flag on how the poster feels the stock is "headed".

      all ears looking, all eyes listening, all lips are flappin'

      god speed,

      mssmwp

    • MSSMWP.....

      >>this stock will become an insitutional playground for training new Market Makers<<

      Not in a million years would a novice be trained in a stock like IDSY, its done on the SUNW & JDSU' of the world.
      I'll get an order from a fund to buy 100k ABC..big deal right? Uh-oh ABC trades 30k share a day. When a fund is paying .05+ for commissions they want to see you working that order for days until complete..all the while utilizing some discretion as to price and timing. In other words, a pro can/will (95%)of the time get a better price than a VWAP program...the VWAP program cannot see a seller step in with size and smack the stock down .50 on 5k shares because it is so thin. But I can see that and bid for more stock than the "normal " unit I may use on another order.
      The value added to my DVP clients is anonymity and flexibility and delivering the order at a significant discount is very lucrative~~~~(something to ponder)

      >>I will never forget the day IDSY traded 411 shares and went up 1.5%<<

      Nothing out of the norm about that MSS, this is a highly illiquid issue.

      Finally, I'd like to address the retail players who are short IDSY. The risk (imo) is much greater for anyone short IDSY (unless they are in "the loop" and know something that has not been disclosed OR are affiliated with a "boutique" firm whose niche is shorting micro/small caps into oblivion.

      I'll delve into the risk/reward angles and different scenarios that can play out here tomorrow.

      BTW mssmwp, regarding the thompson data, my advice is to run a daily spreadsheet on the data, but from my experience it should be read as a contrarian indicator (be sure to include how the indices closed as well).

    • I find it odd that with all this discussion no one has pointed out the fundamentals of the company: ie. that they should make a profit instead of a loss, for the first time, either in the 4th quarter or in the 1st. Also that Ford is installing it in 20 plants and maybe 20 more, and Avis is installing in Puerto Rico as a possible preliminary to a national rollout, etc.

      Also interesting that dbtunr dropped his mask of objectivity and revealed himself as a straight out short in his last post.

 
IDSY
5.78-0.07(-1.20%)Jul 2 3:59 PMEDT