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ID Systems Inc. Message Board

  • rpbossman rpbossman Dec 29, 2005 3:25 PM Flag

    Warning

    This stock is going to start selling off in the first week of the year. I recognized this today. The same happened last year with VRZN. Stocks with good profits at the end of the year sell off in early new year as institutions take profits in early first quarter. Kind of a double dip. They get to show the profit in the 4th qtr and 1st qtr. Additionally shorts must take their losses so stocks that have run up with mid to large short positions will hype at the end of the year then sell off at the first of theyear... IDSY and NWRE are good examples. Good luck. I have decided to take some profits here. I bought in at $10.50. good luck

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    • i'm gald you're light bulb finnally realized that yesterday. Don't know what "a kind of double dip" you are reffering to unless you've been watching seinfeild. Shorts don't have to take any loss unless they want to. By the way what large short position are you reffering to the short interest is only 160Mish as of 12/15/05, that's a wopping 3 days to cover. Me thinks you are an idiot....
      I understand we were written uo in Investor's Business Daily the other day. It was a small pharagragh, if i can find it i will post it or a snap shot of what was said..

    • that does follow the cyclical* nature of this stock -- the two bull runs tend to be May to August and end of November to January...

      I think of IDSY as the little engine that could. I have no reason to take profits here. I am going to wait the company out over time. Sure the price may half, and sure the price may double. I just know that the momentum nature of this stock in the last 2 years means any given day, any given event, and we shoot up uncontrollably (meaning low float makes hard to time right entry price, you may seek $22 but by the time your order hits the pipe she has sailed to $25 -- I would say this happened in the teens a lot more than perhaps will happen in the lower $20's).

      I still have a hold on this stock because the fundamentals which are less relevant than the momentum draw need to backfill. That is an uncomfortable position to be in, but also strategically I will hold IDSY until she either red flags and gets pulled from the exchange, or the momentum trigger of all mothers hits. In other words I am going down or up with the ship folks...

      The way of this world, I am putting the money on the wait. We are current event affected...

      But it takes a lot of balls (casey quote from GWB days?) to buy IDSY in the $20's and sit with my buy-n-hold thinking. You guys taking profits are wise imho...

      rpbossman in at $10 just makes sense to sell now... also balanced with the years losses the tax reasoning also applies perhaps?

      Finally the mama quote -- "it ain't worth anything until you sell it." Cash is king, good luck.

      Godspeed,

      mssmwp

      p.s. we need a backfill on fundamentals for me to put a BUY in this stock. The shorts attracted to this stock should increase like it was before... curious what percentage will be given back (loss) in late winter here like in 2005. Methinks it was almost 45% down last time? My cost average is $7.5 and I think I have sold under 15% total shares held this whole 5+ years -- as of March 2006 it will be my 6th year... y'all know me not to be a greedy fool but I will not sell at 206% gains until this stock taps itself out. That tap out is a pure guess... maybe $40 by 2007? $60 by 2008? Why wouldn't IDSY -- based on prior movement -- excel into that range with fundamentals backfilling to the tune of a minimal $60 mil in 2006? We aren't even talking DoD really -- just the WalMart, Target, USPS and FORDs... this dog can hunt!

      * = is this a misuse of the word cyclical? Input appreciated...

      • 1 Reply to MSSMWP
      • "is this a misuse of the word cyclical? Input appreciated.."

        I believe so. Some examples of "cyclical industries", and for the most part, their stocks, would be semiconductors, chemical, & commodities.
        The word refers to long-term business cycles, e.g., 5 years or so.

        IDSY's order and contract announcements followed by months of waiting are due to the buyers' need to test & prove a "new" technology. Computers & chips aren't as "new." Those companies' fortunes depend on businesses upgrading their hardware to improvements in existing products and the public's need for computers. COHU - which I own - is a good example

 
IDSY
4.88+0.03(+0.62%)Jun 29 3:59 PMEDT