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  • dbtunr dbtunr Mar 26, 2013 10:22 AM Flag

    revenue projections

    So some here think revenue and profits are about to flow in. Let's talk about it

    Last year $44.6M revenue, 22c loss GAAP 6c profit non-GAAP
    This included approx $8M from Avis for rental and $5M for WalMart AI
    assuming no SOW #2, rental will decline to $3M and WalMart resigned for no gain

    projections for next year are $51.1M and 35c profit non-GAAP
    growth would be 14.6% yr-yr

    So best case SOW #2 is signed. Maybe it's not signed until the last minute (July). Doesn't mean we see any revenue this year. Even if it was signed today, best case is revenue starts on Q3. Maybe Avis signs it and plans everything for next year. In the first year of SOW #1, we only got 5,000 units. Let's assume a nominal amount of units delivered this year, say 35,000. We know the price will be discounted so maybe Avis/rental is flat.
    WalMart is flat. AI is maybe up 2%
    That means growth from VMS must be over 20% to show the 14.6% yr-yr growth
    I don't see it. It's possible, but I don't see it.

    Worst case is no SOW #2. IDSY sues Avis and everyone else. Costs go up. Maybe they get a small rental deal here and there that covers their legal costs.
    WalMart is flat. AI is flat. VMS grows 10%. Rental is flat to down
    They would be lucky to stay level with last year's revenue and profits. More likely down yr-yr

    Overall, the median case is flat. Therefore stock price would be flat

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