I contacted Liolios and the revenue estimates for SOW#2 are approximately $5/car/month. I'm still trying to figure out why the presentation states ~$100mm over 10 years. As dbtunr has pointed out that same presentation has contained a few other errors that have recently been corrected.
If they sell 6mm shares, and that's a big "if", earnings under this scenario fall to 0.30-0.35/share. Remember, if they add any staff to support AVIS it will show up in the COGS, not the SG&A. SG&A consists of corporate overhead and sales, not service/implementation staff who implement projects and support the customers.
If they get SOW#2 and all of these things come to fruition and the stock doesn't move, the balance sheet will eventually drive valuation because the book value/share will definitely blow past $6 within a couple of years.
Despite IDSY's 15+ year history all of these numbers are highly speculative because the markets that they operate in, with the exception of AI, are pretty much greenfield markets because per their comments the core VMS market is only 4% penetrated. They could whiff again like they did in 2007-2009 or, if they have the right people and the pipeline is as good as they say it is, we hopefully have a stable foundation of existing and potential customers that will at worst result in modest growth and could result in robust growth. Unfortunately for shareholders it's tough to figure these guys out and it's tough to figure out their markets....in an average quarter they only install 1,000-1,500 units and it is not possible for a retail shareholder to do any channel checks or evaluate how well the product sells.
300,000 X $5/month X 12months = $18M/yr = $180M over 10 years
$100M vs $180M is a HUGE error. again, when the facts change, I will change my mind. But the facts as presented by the company don't add up. Their SEC docs and non-compete expiry dates don't mesh with the actual non-compete expiry