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  • mjw59801 mjw59801 Aug 8, 2013 2:50 PM Flag

    Groundhog Day (IDSY)

     

    Time to make a brief appearance before going back to sabbatical mode. We're almost there, longs should hang in. A few observations:

    1) AVIS looks like a done deal, and it could exceed previous expectations. When the announcement is officially made this stock could explode higher. The price action over the last few months was pathetic and driven by impatient and/or uneducated holders. I continue to believe that neither the shareholder base nor the investing community really "get it" when it comes to AVIS. Will be interesting to see what institutions reduced positions when Q2 13F's are filed next week. Prior to yesterday, 90+% of the investment community were non-believers in the AVIS story. We're now seeing some folks rush to the other side.

    2) The core business could be better, but at least it started trending positive in Q2. I need to see consistent $10mm+ quarters from VMS and AI to really get excited. The Analytics product will gain traction soon as more enterprise customers need "global views" via Business Intelligence into their material handling operations. However, as mentioned above, and as suggested by one of the analysts, AVIS is the catalyst for the next 6-12 months.

    3) I was pleased NOT to hear much about acquisition opportunities. They need to get AVIS done and buy from a position of strength (i.e., a strong stock price). If they can pick up a business like SkyBitz and use the magic word "accretive" it would be really good for the stock.

    4) dbtunr's observation about the Northland Securities analyst on yesterday's call is interesting....some folks are definitely sniffing around.

    5) If IDSY was a startup without jaded institutional holders this stock would be $10+.

    6) I haven't sold any shares over the last 3 months. Best is yet to come.

    7) I'll get active on this board again after the AVIS deal is done.

    Good luck everyone, we're almost there.

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IDSY
5.66-0.12(-2.08%)Jul 6 3:59 PMEDT