the miliatry in the USA and other countries know the importance of supply lines for fuel. I tend to think big oil does not want to trigger conservation as they want to sell as much oil today as possible and worry about tomoorrow when it comes. The military has to be functional at all times and knows peak oil is a threat to its ability to operate, they cannot afford to ignore the facts.
long term no doubt this is correct, but short term oil could come down quite a bit, especially if the economy stalls. So if oil does come down to say $60 its a major buy opportunity of the decade, meantime good to have some oil stocks at all times.