All of the reasonable posts regarding the payoff of debt, stable revenue, great margins, etc are fine except they miss 1 giant point. The problem with IAR is not the category......its the Sr Mgt.
The worst of it walked out the door today but she did loads of damage that can't be cleaned up easily.
Industry folks know it, the analysts that look closely know it, the employees and some customers know it.
Don't get fooled by the books....if you don't know the details of how this business has been run for the past eight years....be careful with your money.
I think the overwhelming problem is the total lack of confidence brought on by the poor coverage of analysts that hit it with a downgrade. This along with the oeverall weak market thus far this year.
We have a cadre of conservative holders all by vertue of the VZ spin-off hit with a "junk" security dumping it at any price just to get rid of it. Instutitional holders included.
The business is as it always was - albeit the economic downturn to take its toll but not to the extent of the stock's decline.
The revenue and profitability decline is totally over discounted. When the selling is over - a different breed of holder will take hold and the speculative appeal with the dividend flow should take hold. The rewards will go to the savvy investor who can bear the risk and forsee the potential for a rebound.
Wouldn't it be ausrprise if the dividend is kept whole and revenues well cover it for the forseeable future?
Time will tell, but the further it goes down the sooner will be the end to this terrible decline.
I bought additional shares today and any further decline would prompt me to buy more as a lower price will capture additional shares at less risk than what I have already.
But the question is, grasshopper, "Will the company be able to maintain their revenue stream given the old school product of paper media?" If not, all of the sudden the great debt payback plan has some serious issues and the company starts cutting back on its ginormus dividend to soften the blow = :( investors.
Who knows?!?!? Maybe they can start growing their online presense with Rodger Clemens as their spokesman..no market saturation online at all.
I heard the old CEO got canned because a crack team of scout employees saw her tear one of their phone books in half with her bare hands!
<The CEO replacement wasn't greeted well, because they got the chairman of the board. They should have gotten an outside guy, then the stock would have rallied.>
Good point, terrific post IMHO.
That's what I thought too. However, the restatement would go back all the way to VZ, and I doubt they were that stupid to fudge the numbers of the business they were spinning off. It's just not worth it for them.
I think it's just panic that set in after somebody got out of the trade to pick up the divvy. Some shorts seized on the panic and pushed the stock lower, so now the seed of doubt is in long's head, and it's easy to drop the price and see longs bail.
I went through the financials, again, and they make sense. They slowly payoff the loan, and the revenue is what it appears to be. The CEO replacement wasn't greeted well, because they got the chairman of the board. They should have gotten an outside guy, then the stock would have rallied. With the new CEO, the preception is that nothing will change. It also adds the feeling that old CEo screwed up in the eyes of the board, and it's an admission of guilt in a way.