Let's talk about it.
Let's use what we have to go off of...
Smuckers bought Rowland Coffee for $360 Million.
Rowland Coffee was almost a cookie cutter company of JVA. Nearly the same numbers, same product lines, etc.
If you take JVA's 5.49 million shares and use $360 million (and that was before coffee was even heating up!!!) you get a price of $65 per share.
Why wouldn't JVA be in the same ball park?
The only thing fixed in the filing is the number of shares to be sold which will not exceed 1 million.
The other numbers are hypotheticals based on what the company thinks the shares might bring. The lower number they post is 17 and change/share. The upper number they speculate is 100/share that would bring the 100 million in proceeds. You can also speculate even lower or higher numbers. It's immaterial until the shares are actually offered.
They are NOT going to sell whatever number of shares will yield them $100 million.
The number of shares in the filing has an upper limit of 1 million.
You're an amateur.
There was NO secondary and JVA has 2 yrs to do anything with the shelf offering. If they get a buyout the stock will soar due to the low float. Id love to see it but even going it alone this company is a keeper. GLTA except those that get all the facts wrong on this message board... " Your Walking Around Blind Without A Cane Pal. A Fool And His Money Are Lucky To Get Together In The First Place." -Gordon Gekko
I would love to see that buyout happen but Ive been invested in JVA for a while and think now that GMCR will not buy JVA, here is why. GMCR went on a buying spree and bought up a bunch of roasters. This helps them continue to bring the highest quality coffee to their K-Cup market. A recent story in Investors Business Daily suggest that the aquisition phase is about over for GMCR. If you look at thier purchases GMCR was not consolidating the supply chain but actually the roasting chain. GMCR loses its patent on the K Cup next year so compitition should heat up. JVA is a great supplier but I dont think GMCR has them in the cross hairs for aquisistion. They need product lines to compete next year.
If you ask me the shelf offering is JVAs way of saying they will be going it alone and need to raise cash for future growth of their own product lines and distrubution lines. Maybe just maybe youll see someone like Sara Lee buy JVA or some other food supplier that missed out on the coffee craze.
Anyone agree or disagree?
if there truly are bean shortages, don't you think any of the big boys could be game, or maybe even someone else who wants to get into the Coffee Game?
Sara Lee, Nestle, Kraft, Starbucks, Caribou, Peets, and even Smuckers (Why not do it again if Rowland has worked out well?).
Maybe WalMart or Wholefoods want to get into the game? I doubt those two would be on the list, but you get the idea. It would probably make more sense for someone like a Deer Park or Poland Springs to enter the Coffee Business.
But getting back to the topic, the 30's seem pretty cheap for a buy out price. Heck if they go it alone and management can't sneak out a little more margin, that'd be great too.
It could be bought for far less than $65 a share now but going forward it should keep trading higher which will keep raising the buyout price. It seems that GMCR would be wise to offer in the mid $30's soon with the ultimate price around $40. Waiting will just increase the price tag.
I agree. The smuckers buyout was a 69/70% premium. So if you do the math of a 70% premium to the settlement, you get around 180M. Divide that by 5.49M shares you would get around 32.90/share. Maximum i could see gmcr buy them for 250M. But that's a stretch.
Good luck to all. I am new as of a a month and a half ago, but see some nice upside here.