I don't see past pendulum history as a good indicator of future performance in this case. Yes oil demand will fluctuate but it's dependant upon the economy and where oil is produced and eventually consumed. The US is quickly becoming oil independent thereby reducing the need for tankers in a big way. That leaves Asia and the need for tankers there isn't growing fast enough to meet the oversupply of ships. I think TNK is heading down to the $2.30's before their is any meaningful rebound.
valid points. On the flip side, the number of ships may decline, in two ways. Some ships will go to the breakers. Other ships may remain on the water, but not sail. Why? Because they are too old. Not old enough to be broken apart, but old enough to scare off a shipment.