I have no idea what TNK shares are going to do now. I have absolutely no sense of what tanker rates are going to do for aframax, suezmax or for the product tankers which also impact on TNK business. I have no tell upon which to base any outlook on economic activity in Asia. In my three decades of equities trading, I cannot remember seeing a set of circumstances in the global economy that was so much up in the air. India and Brazil and Indonesia are literally falling apart. Japan and China appears inscrutably and opaquely to be treading water without quite going under. Europe is divided between north and south with the former doing significantly better than the later as per usual. Inflation has shown up in Canada which I think is not insignificant. And the United States appears to be on the brink of taking a major risk by engaging a military attack against a maniac regime in Syria. Egypt is on the brink of civil war with strife and unrest in the Sinai. Israel is calling up reserves. I have never felt more clueless when it comes to an equity holding than with TNK shares. So I am holding for the time being. But I have no idea where it will go from here.
pb - not being crass here ... strip out everything you mentioned. What it boils down to the number of ships in the water. There are too many. If there were not so many ships, nothing else would matter. Regardless of the strife you mention, oil is consumed regardless.
ms, I agree that the supply and demand dynamics of "the number of ships in the water" is really dispositive with respect to tanker rates whereby TNK derives its profits. The thing is, I cannot see what is going to improve things going forward. You would probably say "fewer ships on the water" would turn the tide. But I wonder how that is going to happen. Does FRO need to go belly up? Do tankers need to really get taken out? Their bankers would rather renegotiate their loans to avoid taking very close to a 90 percent to 100 percent haircut should repossessed tankers get sent into the auction market or worse put out for scrap. The excess abundance of tankers is keeping rates too low to turn much if any profit. Where is the light at the end of the tunnel? Fixed costs are so high that many tankers will take on spot rates that force them to lose money. But how long can that go on? I just don't see any way out and the global economic outlook provides no positive answers in my honest opinion.
You are correct oil will be consumed for a very long time. TNK is not going away.. Because of TK. I do however feel there may be another few dips back into the 2.40s- 2.50s. However this is still a good time to acquire for long term.