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  • archieroo2 archieroo2 Oct 7, 2002 11:03 AM Flag


    Waiting on ASCA to show its cards.

    We can't be absolutely sure that Friday was the w5 low (of larger wave A) the bulls are hoping for until the prior w4 high at 22.4 is eclipsed. But to wait for that signal would be to give away too much (30% gain). Thus, the better strategy right now is to enter as close to Friday's low as you can and exit if a new low was made. (A new low would make us sure that more downside would be in the cards.)

    Wave structure following a significant low is virtually identical for a trend change and a correction. Basically all we can watch in the early wave structure is that it doesn't violate the wave rules of an impulse. so far so good. w1 was a 5 wave and w2 looks corrective.

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      Taxes that took effect in 2010:

      1. Excise Tax on Charitable Hospitals (Min$/immediate): $50,000 per hospital if they fail to meet new “community health assessment needs,” “financial assistance,” and “billing and collection” rules set by HHS. Bill: PPACA; Page: 1,961-1,971

      2. Codification of the “economic substance doctrine” (Tax hike of $4.5 billion). This provision allows the IRS to disallow completely-legal tax deductions and other legal tax-minimizing plans just because the IRS deems that the action lacks “substance” and is merely intended to reduce taxes owed. Bill: Reconciliation Act; Page: 108-113

      3. “Black liquor” tax hike (Tax hike of $23.6 billion). This is a tax increase on a type of bio-fuel. Bill: Reconciliation Act; Page: 105

      4. Tax on Innovator Drug Companies ($22.2 bil/Jan 2010): $2.3 billion annual tax on the industry imposed relative to share of sales made that year. Bill: PPACA; Page: 1,971-1,980

      5. Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax Hike ($0.4 bil/Jan 2010): The special tax deduction in current law for Blue Cross/Blue Shield companies would only be allowed if 85 percent or more of premium revenues are spent on clinical services. Bill: PPACA; Page: 2,004

      6. Tax on Indoor Tanning Services ($2.7 billion/July 1, 2010): New 10 percent excise tax on Americans using indoor tanning salons. Bill: PPACA; Page: 2,397-2,399

      7. Medicine Cabinet Tax ($5 bil/Jan 2011): Americans no longer able to use health savings account (HSA), flexible spending account (FSA), or health reimbursement (HRA) pre-tax dollars to purchase non- prescription, over-the-counter medicines (except insulin). Bill: PPACA; Page: 1,957-1,959

      8. HSA Withdrawal Tax Hike ($1.4 bil/Jan 2011): Increases additional tax on non-medical early withdrawals from an HSA from 10 to 20 percent, disadvantaging them relative to IRAs and other tax- advantaged accounts, which remain at 10 percent. Bill: PPACA; Page: 1,959
      Tax that took effect in 2012

      9. Employer Reporting of Insurance on W-2 (Min$/Jan 2012): Preamble to taxing health benefits on individual tax returns. Bill: PPACA; Page: 1,957
      Taxes that take effect in 2013

      10. Surtax on Investment Income ($123 billion/Jan. 2013): Creation of a new, 3.8 percent surtax on investment income earned in households making at least $250,000 ($200,000 single). This would result in the following top tax rates on investment income: Bill: Reconciliation Act; Page: 87-93
      Capital Gains Dividends Other*
      2012 15% 15% 35%
      2013+ 23.8% 43.4% 43.4%

    • Big problem arch, you were zigging and zagging when you should have been bobbing and weaving. When I was in bed with my girlfried last night, I glanced out the window and noticed that her nipples were perfectly aligned with the 3-star triplet. Sure sell sign. Take it from me, these things work.

    • Volume pattern has returned to normal. This lends credence to stop losses were getting cleaned out yesterday.

      If my gut is wrong about today's intraday low holding, it will be because one more small zig-zag is needed to complete this long trople zig-zag pattern from 22+.

      Today's intraday pattern has already completed one small zig-zag, possibly the first half of the last zig-zag we are looking for (to complete the 3rd and final zig-zag begun yesterday). If so, the final zig-zag projects to about 14 based on the size of this morning's zig-zag.

    • Looks like the grub worm was right again and archaroo got buried by the wave again. Got to start watching them grub worms. Obviously more reliable then the wave. I thought the wave went out with the final Mets game of 1992.

    • I just sold at 14.70. Why? Because the grub worm just came oput and saw his shadow.

    • Why now?

      Two reasons.

      (1) Yesterday's negative momentum has not continued. This suggests to me at that the low of this final phase could be in and we may build a large triangle holding pattern til earnings and/or we could reverse sharply to the upside.

      (2) if I'm wrong, the exit, today's low is nearby.

    • I re-entered a few mins ago in 14.5 range.

    • One last thought re: today's zig-zag.

      It very easily could be wave-a in a triangle or even a wave-a in a flat. If so, we should see a rally at the open or shortly thereafter. Triples most frequently conclude with triangles. Triple zig-zags are rare.

      What made me think of this is the length of this zig-zag as is just isn't sufficient to be a triple zig-zag, unless, of course, as I mentioned, this is only the first half of the 3rd zig-zag. Whatever it is, tomorrow will probably finish the story.


      (1) ~14.8 --- current zig-zag ends triple zig-zag

      (2) ~13.8 --- current zig-zag only first half of 3rd zig-zag

      (3) ~14 --- based on wave-4B ret wave-4A = 138%

      PS - I have also considered the possibility that this is really w-A-5 (not 4B). This would be the case if 4A was an abc zigizag rather than a 5 wave (possible!). what made me consider this option is that today's intraday pattern could be a 5 wave pattern if it completes a certain way. That would complete the 9th wave of this move and 9 wave patterns are impulsive. If this is the case, we already have one projection for the A-w-5 low of LUCKY 13 (range of 12 to 14). But now, we can use the waves of today's intraday pattern to project its termination based on the assumption it is impulsive. There are 3 possibilities for this extended w5 mini-pattern.

      @100$ expansion = 14.5
      @162% expansion = 14.0
      @262% expansion = 13.2 (2.62 usually occur at major tops and bottoms only!)

      Once again, 13 looks lucky!

    • As I said above, the w-A low (or w-A-5 low) projects to ~13 (based on the w-2 of prior ext w-5). While ~13 is the projected w-A-5 low, we are only approaching the w-A-4B low at present. Where does it project to?

      To project the w-A-4B low we need to look at the entire w-A-4 pattern. Since w-A-4B has retraced w-A-4A by more than 62% we know w-A-4 is a variation of a common "flat" pattern. B-waves of common flat patterns usually retrace ~100% of A-waves. However, once the A-wave is significantly exceeded by a strong B-wave, the B-wave usually continues until it retraces the A-wave by 138%. This projects to a wave-4B low @~14. But we aren't done yet.

      I fully admit this pattern has been a wild ride. Twice I have entered and exited positions. Here's what we know:

      (1) We are obviously getting a triple corrective pattern of some sort.

      (2) We have had 2 expanding triangles complete in the last 10 days (15 min chart shows them clearly) and in between we had a 5 wave pattern that completed a double zig-zag.

      (3) The 2nd (and larger) expanding triangle was an x-wave that concluded at today's open at ~16.2 (wave-e).

      Today's intraday pattern was a complete zig-zag. Thus, the dreaded triple zig-zag appears to have been borne out, or has it? It is possible that today's zig-zag is only half of the third zig-zag. I say this because although the pattern is sufficient, today's low was barely below the low established by the double-zig-zag. If this is the case, the bottom half of this zig-zag would project to ~13.8.

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