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Ameristar Casinos, Inc. Message Board

  • archieroo2 archieroo2 Jan 6, 2003 5:22 PM Flag

    Gann Analysis Proves Bullseye!

    From previous post:

    "I think the pair of Gann angles intersecting at ~15, both of which have provided resistance repeatedly during the last 6 months, present a formidable upside barrier (at 15). On the other hand, any rally through 15, that can close above 15 for a couple of days, would indicate additional market strength and should be bought IMO. Old resistance (15) = new support.

    I would also buy a decline to the next major support level at ~10."

    Well, I posted that analysis a day before ASCA
    rallied up precisely to 15.03. Price quickly retreated as volume (buying) disappeared. Negative volume showed up late Friday and continued throughout the day today, as ASCA closed on its low at 13.95 on relatively high and expanding volume (137% ADV).

    I read this bearish price action as a confirmation of my Gann-based analysis which stated that how it handled the significant resistance waiting at 15 would determine the future price direction. Since it failed miserably at this key resistance level, it will now test the next major support level at ~10.

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    • Hmmm.....Elliott & Gann & Brown = technical mumbo jumbo, yet he has the audacity to adopt my ~10 price target. Some folks just have hutzpah.

    • Thanks for your reply. Whether a good ida or not, well planned or not, it seems as though many states are committed to casinos as a future new revenue source.

      RE; ASCA price - After a narrowing of daily bollingers, ASCA is now breaking through the lower bollinger (daily). The lower weekly bollinger is at ~10. ASCA and 10 may be on a collision course.

    • Entering into gaming as a tax revenue generating option is not something states should enter into without careful consideration.

      The most important issue that states need to consider are the regulatory issues; i.e. corruption, cheating, money laundering, and the myriad of other problems that occur dealing with those volumes of cash. In addition to the regulatory issues, comes how are they going to calculate the taxes. Are they going to collect taxes based upon revenue (as do most jurisdictions) or are they going to collect a fixed tax on each gaming device? Then comes the issue of what tax rate are the states going to use. If the tax rate is too high the gaming companies will probably choose to expand their operations in existing locations, rather than invest large amounts of capital at a lower rate of return.

      Any questions as to how effective a state can manage gaming issues should be answered by a brief look at California. For years, the state lottery was never audited. They had no idea of how much revenue was being generated or dispersed. Now they are exploding in the Indian Gaming arena, but the state has no idea of how many gaming devices are in these casinos and they initially have only collected a fixed fee on each device, not a percentage of the revenue.

      Casinos may or may not be the solution, but fiscally responsible management of the revenues the states do have would be a major step in the right direction.

    • I did another kind of TA study today for ASCA involving weekly bollingers and weekly RSI readings. The result of that analysis agrees with my previously reported Gann study results, namely, ASCA has a good probability of making an eventual low in the price area of 10. There is even an Elliott wave count that would give the same result (where wave 3 of the 5 wave corrective wave A (begun at 33) subdivided into 5 parts, and we are now in wave 4 of A with just wave 5 of A (down) to go. At 10, that wave 5 would complete at a 0.62 relationship to wave 1. This is a common relationship between waves 1 and 5.

      Buy at ~10.

      For those who prefer the fundamentals - with so many State governments in fiscal chaos, many, such as my home state, NY, are proposing building new casinos to generate tax revenue. It struck me that this would offset expected growth in existing casinos to some extent. Any thoughts on this issue?

    • I'm confident in my TA. However, TA doesn't eliminate uncertainty. Thus, on this stock, my TA has the following results: (all posted real-time)

      (1) entry at 15 and exit at 22
      (2) several entry/exits in 15-17 area for a very small loss
      (3) final exit before gap down day based on pattern formation

      Can I predict every move of every stock on Wall ST? Hardly. TA improves my odds, that's all. I'm sure the day will come will I but ASCA again, based on TA, and hopefully make a decent gain. The goal is small losses and decent sized wins.

      ASCA is full of uncertainty right now. From 33 to 11, it's hard to argue it is expensive. But it's sector is hurting near-term and it is expanding in a high cost business - uncertainty! Chart is dead. No ability to rally, no desire to go lower. I see a support/resistance range of 10 and 15. Buy @~10, sell @~15. If it breaks through 15, buy again. If that sounds like no confidence to you so be it. To me it's a strategy based on TA.

    • Im in. My detailed technical analysis tells me there is resistance at 100.00 and support at 1.00. My prediction is that by the end of the contest, ASCA will be somewhere between 1 and 100 dollars. By the way, did I mention I am never wrong.

    • Archieroo, your so full of it. You better go back and read your post # 1610. You said we were in wave five and on our way to 17. Only missed it by 28%. Take your hocus pocus somewhere else. You don't have a clue and have been sold a bill of goods by people who peddle their wares to fools.

 
ASCA
26.50Aug 13 4:00 PMEDT

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