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Ameristar Casinos, Inc. Message Board

  • elvisnoydb elvisnoydb Apr 9, 2003 11:53 AM Flag

    40+% increase in last month

    All you technical analysts out there, what is the explanation for the big bounce in the past month. I haven't seen much from either Archieroo or from myluckisall bad lately. Did everyone capitulate at the bottom?

    I can't imagine that all of the run up is related to the war. The industry index is only up around 5% over the last month.

    I am hoping this board can return to discussing ASCA, and avoid the tedious political rants.

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    • elvisnoydb - "Did everyone capitulate at the bottom?". NO. In case you care to go back and check posts for the last 9 months, you will find out that 9 months ago I warned everyone that something was wrong with the stock price action and they should bail out. I was negative on the stock for 9 straight months as it plunged from about $29 to below $8. At the time it hit $8, I turned positive on the stock, and have been positive ever since. I have not posted for over 2 weeks because I was away on vaction, but my last posts indicated that I thought that the stock would head higher and test a long term downtrend line at just over $11. The stock successfully penetrated that downtreand line, and is now recovering some of the massive loss it took after Neilsen overspent on St. Charles and (at least temporarily) ruined its margins. I think institutions will slowly forgive Neilsen for burning them badly, and I expect the stock to be in the $15-17 range in about one month from now.

      archieroo2 got burned by a bad ASCA trade when the stock bottomed out under $8, and seems to have lost interest in the stock after a series of bad technical calls. A few archieroo impostors have posted messages, but nothing as interesting (although frequently incorrect) as archieroo2's Elliot Wave and Gann Angle post used to be.

    • From what my software tells me it's institutional investing. Vol fired up beginning of April. Rel strengh is very good.
      I got in late, but RS being what it is I decided to take the risk even after the runup.
      Pity the recovery from the bot was on low vol, my system didn't pick it up until just recently.

      T.

    • Here�s my view of what�s been happening with this stock.

      1) St. Louis Revenue St. Louis has continued to have very strong numbers. Mostly because the casino is clearly the best property in St. Louis now. See post number: 1849.
      2)Gaming Expansion and New Gaming Taxes Merrill Lynch yesterday in their upgrade of Argosy and Banc of America in their upgrade of Ameristar noted that the likelihood of both additional gaming expansion and significant tax increases have now lessoned, particularly in Missouri. Missouri is of course where the lions share of the revenue comes for this company, so you need to watch them closely.
      3) Clearly the stock had been oversold with a 5 P/E, while others in the industry had P/E�s of 12 or more. In making the St. Charles property the nicest facility in the area by far, Craig Neilsen may have overspent a bit and that of course cut into short term earnings and pissed some people off. Neilsen insists on having the best property in every market and since he owns 60% of the outstanding stock, he can afford to take a long term perspective.
      4) Comps The index is going to include suppliers and hotel and leisure companies. These companies are going to be affected differently by market developments. Gaming suppliers will have an opposite reaction to the news that gaming expansion is slowing down than an existing riverboat operator such as Ameristar will for instance. Argosy, also exclusively a riverboat company is up about 40% during the same period as well. MGM Mirage and Harrah�s have also had 25% and 20% runs respectively.
      5) Margins I love what Ameristar has done with the cashless gaming machines. Ameristar is probably the most aggressive riverboat operator with cashless machines and once they change and fine tune their systems and procedures, they will be able to significantly reduce their Hard Count staff as well as have other operating efficiencies relative to their competitors. Many older or impatient customers also appreciate not having to lug the coin buckets around or standing in line to cash in a bucket of tokens.

      • 1 Reply to stlouiscasinorpt
      • stlouiscasino -- thanks for your insightful post. It is a pleasure to see a well reasoned analysis, rather than some propaganda regarding the president or Iraq. Your comments regarding industry comps were quite helpful. I did not realize that gaming manufacturers were lumped into the index.

        Another buck increase and we will be back where we started the year. Hopefully the March numbers for Missouri will continue the strong trends we have seen in recent months.

 
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