Negative stories are out there, oil &gas, inflation, the real estate bubble, etc are in the nation news.
If it bleeds, local TV stations run it first, NEGATIVE, NEGATIVE, NEGATIVE
You wonder why that you get up in the morning??
Well, I don't watch national news, or the local TV stations news. I get my news off the internet.
Sorry to be long winded, but we have all these negative articles about the gaming industry.
ASCA back out of the bidding for AZTAR. Who can justify paying $30 million a acre for the Trop in Vegas???
The big lenders are really pissed at ASCA as they will not get to loan ASCA a lot of money.
So the analysts are beating a dead horse by hyping big competition for ASCA from PNK, HET and ISLE.
How can little old ASCA compete with these BIG CASINOS??
If past performance counts, ASCA will beat the soxes off these competitors.
We will know more starting the 8th of June, IA reports its gaming numbers for May, MO the 10th, CO the 17th, and MS the 18th.
Give us the facts, and no bull
No problem. I don't offend very easily. Just looking for some healthy discussion about the company - which I think we had.
I don't really think the bid for AZR was phony either. Maybe it was just the disgruntled former AZR shareholder in me talking. I sold my AZR shares about four months prior to the bidding war. Nice move eh...
Do you have much asca? How long have you been holding? Target?
I only own a small investment in ASCA as I don't like the owner owning so much of the stock. ASCA pays a small dividend, so I may add to my position soon if stock keep dropping... You got to love 4tier gaming stocks.
ps: Look at MECA, never benn profitable, they have 750 slots at OKC and will add 1500 slots this fall at Gulfstream.
I love the ponies, so I'm betting with my heart not with my brains. $6.00 could get you $10.00 by xmas.. Florida is hot right now. ISLE & BYD are going to make a nickel too...imo
Past performance doesn't matter. Once was a time when Trump dominated Atlantic City but that time is gone. How is Ameristar going to grow?
There is new competition coming in or current competition doing major expansions in each of ASCA's major markets:
STL PNK will hit town in 2008 with two riverboats. Granted ASCA St. Charles is expanding too which should help them be ready for the marketing war between PNK, ASCA, maybe CSux (from the Illinois side) and HET that I predict will occur.
KC Harrah's adding a hotel
Penn adding a hotel and spa at the Argosy Riverside
Isle adding special events, restaurants, and casino expansion
Council Bluffs Harrahs recently opened
Vicksburg ASCA admits their estimates were wrong during conference call.
Two new casinos Pot O'Gold and Lakes Entertainment are due to open in 2007. I have no idea if these operators are going to be competitive but it probably would have at least a short term effect. I do think ISLE selling out of this market to a new operator may help ASCA a bit.
Black Hawk This is the $64,000 dollar question. If the expansion starts paying off -- the property can possibly carry some of the others if they decline a little. Unfortunately, we just haven't seen good enough results yet from this property to believe.
Rather than chasing dreams like AZR -- Neilson and company would be much better served by pursuing more reasonable targets. eg. Sands Regent in Reno, Casino Queen East STL, ISLE properties in Vicksburg and Shreveport, or various Laughlin properties that have been sold in the last year. Carruthersville, MO will be for sale by Columbia and would be a decent addition at the right price. Gotta believe Columbia will have to make a deal reasonably quickly. While none of these are maybe home runs --they are decent moneymakers.
If Neilson really wanted to be bold - he could buy the Plaza / LVClub in Las Vegas and come in with a legit plan and a willingness to invest money (something Barrick and their creditors Navegante have been sorely lacking).
Anyway, solid earnings growth is what the critics aren't seeing and that's why the price is dropping.
I don't buy much of the macroeconomic stuff either regarding casino industry's stock prices especially a regional operator like ASCA.
Personally, I'm holding until Black Hawk hotel is about to open in 2008. If I had a larger stake though I'd be pretty concerned about the company's direction.
<<Council Bluffs Harrahs recently opened>>
That was HET's Bluff Run which was changed to Horseshoe with no hotel.
<<Neilson and company would be much better served by pursuing more reasonable targets. eg. Sands Regent in Reno, Casino Queen East STL, ISLE properties in Vicksburg and Shreveport, or various Laughlin properties that have been sold in the last year. Carruthersville, MO will be for sale by Columbia and would be a decent addition at the right price.>>
Have you ever been to EStL at night?
How would you like the 50% gaming tax rate in IL?
RENO is getting killed by the CA tribes and snow.
Shreveport/Bossier are getting killed by the OK Tribes. Why you think ISLE is selling its Bossier City location?
C-Ville is a very small operation that Terrible might want since they have 2 small MO casinos.
NV, NJ, MS have the low gaming tax rates--that is where ASCA should be looking for new blood...imo
The CEO's name is "Neilsen". ASCA was not the only one to withdraw from the bidding once it became to risky for them to continue. I am glad I own stock in a Company who knows not to extend into dangerous territory (financially)...remember Trump, Wynn? Steady and calm.