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Quiksilver Inc. Message Board

  • agv2000 agv2000 Jun 16, 1999 5:33 PM Flag

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    • eddie,

      i could not agree with you more,
      but then again i'm in the business as well. i've got
      a little bored of trying to sing the obvious
      virtues of this company to those who refuse to be open
      minded. i was out in the warehouse of my company today
      and saw them unpacking the quik bubble
      vests[insulated]. i'm so nervous, who will we possible sell them
      to[sarcam for those who don't get it]. yeah, that's right
      quik and roxy sweaters, vests, and fleece
      are
      absolute layups [that means money in bank]. QUIK AND ROXY
      ARE HOT WHEN IT'S WARM AND HOT WHEN IT'S COOL.

    • Just came in from the pool, and had a little
      extra time...I hope you'll bare with me. The reason I
      didn't go to the Hamptons for the weekend was because I
      rented my home to some guy from Manhattan. Boy, did he
      overpay!

      Now, onto business.
      "Industry experts
      concede the leaders of branding all things life style
      oriented is Costa Mesa, California based Quicksilver.
      Roxy, the company's junior division has seen sales zoom
      from 25 million in 97, to an expected 100 million+
      this year, nearly a quarter of the company's total
      sales, by putting its logo on sneakers, purses, perfume
      and even luggage. 'They're the ones who do it best,'
      said Liz Melissa, cheif swimwear buyer 338-STORE
      PACIFIC SUNWEAR CHAIN."

      "The company's growth is
      worldwide. The surge has drawn the attention of financial
      analysts such as John Olinski of Newport Beach, California
      based Cruttenden Roth. Olinski said, 'The Quicksilver
      brand remains under penetrated in department stores and
      non-core markets, creating solid, long-term growth
      opportunities.'"

      I think I'll use the rent-money to add to
      my ZQK position.

      Eddie

    • ZQK / INDUSTRY
      Quick 1.34 / 1.24

      >better than industry, but still below
      1.5

      Currient 2.32 / 2.68
      >below industry, needs
      improvement to +2.5

      LT Debt to Equity 0.20 / 0.43

      >excellent, double industry

      Tot Debt to Equity 0.43 /
      0.55
      >better than industry, close to 50% but OK if
      leveraging shows
      up in good Return on Equity ratio - yes
      in this case.

      Interest Coverage 13.27 /
      22.40
      >lower than industry, but still above
      10

      *****
      I have no real concerns here. Within or better than
      industry. Further, better than ratios of best fit
      competitors (TOM NAUT KWD SMI RL).

    • on financing, but I'll have to get back to you
      later on that one - got to do some homework tonight on
      some buy op's after the last two days.

      Check ya
      tomorrow or next. Nuvo's OK by me - someone has to be the
      neg guy. Keeps us longs from getting complacent.

    • Thanks for the excellent post. The facts appear
      to have silenced the negative spin on inventory, or
      maybe the big house for rent on the beach doesn't have
      phone lines so no internet access for Mr. professional
      service corporation.

      Do you have any ideas on the
      company's credit and borrowing? Is that also in line with
      the industry averages? Thanks for any insight.

    • I'll wave next time I sail the schooner by, or
      maybe show a manhattan salute. Seriously, loose the
      arrogance - you won't endear yourself to the locals
      there...you know how they feel about outsiders...and you'll
      always be an outsider...I fortunately don't have this
      problem.

      LETS TALK INVENTORY - We don't have access to monthly
      inventory data; the best we can do is quarterly/annual. An
      MBA Refresher (nice to have one), best tool for
      inventory analysis from financial statements
      is:

      Inventory Turnover(IT) = Cost of Goods Sold/Average
      Inventory.

      IT shows # of times avg. inventory is
      sold during a period. Higher # is more efficient
      management of inventory. However, there are several caveats
      to keeping small inventories to achieve high ratios,
      such as:

      >incurring larger ordering
      costs.
      >losing quantity discounts
      >and most importantly,
      losing sales due to lack of inventory.

      A company
      with a higher sales growth rate will have a marginally
      lower IT ratio then the industry average, because it
      seeks not to loose sales. The other ratio is Asset
      Turnover(AT)=Net Sales/Average Assets. AT measures the efficiency
      with which a company uses its assets to generate sales
      (remember, inventory is an asset). Higher AT is more
      efficient. Now for some #'s:

      IT Industry = 4.36 ZQK=
      3.47 [TTM 4/99]
      AT Industry = 1.60 ZQK=
      1.93

      >ZQK's IT was 2.68 on TTM 10/98, and now up to 3.47 in 6
      months.
      >Inventory was $67.11M at 4/99, lowest in three
      Q's.
      >Quarterly IT ratio of 1.13 is best in last 5Q
      (0.62,0.87,0.74,0.84).
      >As a percent of Assets, inventory is 38%, lowest
      ratio in last 5Q (51,44,48,42).

      BOTTOM LINE?
      There is no inventory issue here. IT ratio is inline
      with industry given sales growth rate, and the ratio
      has been improving. Excess US Inventory is unloaded
      overseas at market, per the annual report.
      "As for the
      rest of your message, you might want to take a few
      writing courses. Or is all that nonsense merely a coverup
      for your inability to provide a good argument." Now
      where did I read that? Got the above meaningful
      discourse in your bag? So put your $ where your mouth
      is...sell the stock short. I'll stay long thank
      you.

      Enough BS city boy - truce I say.

    • I indicated that I live on the East Coast, not
      Long Island. Actually, I was referring to Nordstroms
      at Tyson's Corner, VA. I'm sure that if you were to
      call the buyer she/he would tell you the same thing.
      Quiksilver is hot here in Northern VA! As for my identity,
      I'm into holistic medicine, i.e., I would much rather
      take herbs to cure certain ailments instead of
      prescription drugs. The Chinese and Europeans have been doing
      this for centuries and Americans are just beginning to
      discover the benefits of herbs (although I'll be the first
      to admit there are some herbs that are dangerous).
      Maybe you should try Kava Kava.

    • ZQK is all over the place (not just So. Cal) and
      as anyone who listened to the conference call knows,
      major growth is coming from Europe: France, Spain,
      Portugal, Netherlands.

      As far as the comment on
      fleeces and sweaters, give me a break.

    • I am not arguing that ZQK is or is not hot right
      now in CA. I am wondering about where they will be
      one year from now. You say that the new fall line is
      sizzling, mentioning cargo pants and fleeces and sweaters.
      Cargo pants seem to have peaked. I got my first pair in
      February. Now I see them all reduced. By September, they
      probably won't be a great selling item. As for sweaters
      and fleeces, do Southern Californians wear sweaters
      at any time during the year? I am really not that
      sure. I have been as north as San Jose and damn was it
      hot in the Fall. Last thing I'd be doing was putting
      on a sweater. Anyone have any input?

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