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Quiksilver Inc. Message Board

  • DiamondShoalsPilot DiamondShoalsPilot Feb 7, 2000 11:46 AM Flag

    Debtload is awful scary here. I think..

    that is what is spooking investors here. Maybe
    that last split wasn't too bright. Some people,
    especially institutionals investors smell bankrupty when
    stocks head for the low teens with huge debt and
    revolving structures. Inventories are key at this time of
    year, and those aren't great either. They are opening a
    huge store in my hometown, I can't wait to buy some
    superfat clothes and help the stock myself.!

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    • Enough with the McKnight bashing. He is
      Quiksilver.
      There are others though!!!!!!If you have the
      inside track like you claim you do then it is all quite
      obvious.

      PS this is not stooge #2

    • Maybe the auditors will catch this. I don't know.
      Testing the revenue cutoff is basically a test to
      determine when inventory is shipped, since that is when
      revenue is recognized. I don't know if auditors
      necessarily check the actual shipment date to the requested
      shipment date.

    • requires testing the cuttoff of revenue to be
      sure future sales aren't counted early. This is
      exactly what you are describing. The auditors could
      possibly be subject to legal liability if your preshipment
      take is accurate. That's why I don't think your take
      is likely even though I don't see anything in the
      financials to dispute it.

      Also, any change in
      accounting methodology, which your preshipment scenario
      would be, would need to be disclosed. If it is common
      practice and they do it every quarter then there is really
      no issue.

      I have no idea about the perks the
      ZQK exec's get. My company is similar in size and we
      have exec's renting lear jets and taking limo rides
      everywhere. Its hard to know where the line is between
      necessary image expenses and waste.

    • Since you are a "bean counter" you know that the
      financials only post a summary or grouping of various
      individual line items into one catagory. We don't know, for
      example, how much McKnight and his "friends" spend each
      year on first class travel, entertainment, etc. We
      also don't know, for example, how much ZQK rips off
      the Aikau Family with all of the Aikau promotional
      profits.

      When the financials are audited, I don't think that
      the auditors look at the customer requested shipment
      dates per se. They might review, in the sample pulled,
      the purchase order by a customer to make sure it is
      there, and the invoice for the merchandise ordered to
      verify billing, then verify the actual shipment date to
      properly book the income. They would not necessarily look
      to verify the actual shipment date to the requested
      shipment date...IMHO. I don't know, but I don't think GAAS
      necessarily requires this step to be taken.

      Good luck.

    • I know little about the industry other than what
      I've learned trading ZQK and being a hardcore surfer
      for about 15 years.

      I am however a "bean
      counter" and have a thorough understanding of financial
      statements. After reviewing the latest financials I have to
      admit that I cant refute your take about the
      preshipments. I'm not saying that your take is right, just that
      I didn't see anything to disprove it. And, thanks
      to you, I am keeping my eyes open for the scenario
      you describe. I am skeptical however because what you
      describe would seem to be "misleading" financial statments
      and that would be unlikely, but not unheard of, with
      the scrutiny of independent auditors.

      The low
      cash figure is a little disturbing but with the
      capital expenditures going on it understandable. As long
      as their line of credit is big enough there is
      little risk to the creditors.

      As for me selling
      my position, I take a fresh look at my investments
      everyday. A big run up before earnings would be tempting
      but its hard to say what I'll do.

    • How I find this type of information is of no
      importance to you. What is important to you is how this
      information is verified. When I advised this board that ZQK
      was pre-shipping inventory, I told them that this
      would be verified by the financial statements when they
      are posted. AND I WAS CORRECT...AGAIN. ZQK was in
      effect, CHEATING. The street saw right through it, and
      now the stock is suffering for it.

      Again, read
      the financials. You will notice a couple of things
      which just jump right out at you. First, the A/R
      balance is "THROUGH THE ROOF". Second, the inventory
      levels are only slightly higher than last year. This is
      almost unheard of. There is relatively no cash, and an
      increasing amount of short term debt.

      There is also
      a carry-over effect. The quarter ending Jan. 31 is
      historically the slowest quarter for ZQK. As Darren Barker
      pointed out in his DOWNGRADE, orders are down. Do you
      know why? It's because the orders which were to have
      been shipped for the Oct. Quarter, were ALREADY
      SHIPPED. The income has already been booked in October, so
      WE WILL NOT SEE ANY BLOW OUT EARNINGS when the
      financials are posted in March. Remember, we need to see at
      least .20/share for the stock to begin the climb back
      to respectibility. There is no way ZQK will post
      .20/share.

    • we will see what the future holds for ZQK stock.
      I've been in and out several times and made money each
      time. I've actually doubled a couple of times. So, even
      if my current long postition went to zero I'd still
      be ahead. Of course I don't expect anything less
      than a double or I wouldn't have bought back in. In my
      opinion there is little downside here because a buyout
      would be inevitable if we got in the single digits
      (like Eddie_Would is rooting for). Also, (I wouldn't
      want to mislead anyone about the extent of my
      optimism) I do not have a big position this time.

    • You seem like a fairly intelligent person. At
      least you know the industry, and it appears to me that
      you know how to read a simple financial statement.


      Would you please explain to McKnight's Stooge #1 the
      effect of ZQK's PRE-SHIPMENT if merchandise to meet
      earnings. Thanks in advance.

      Actually, I had hoped
      that you would have sold when ZQK was at or above your
      cost, but who knows, if history repeats itself, in
      about 2 weeks, we should see another set of "hype"
      posts that will lead to the anticipated earnings run.
      I'm sure you'll be out at that time...LOL

    • you still have scoreboard

    • Everyone, don't take it from me, take it from a
      FORMER INVESTOR, here's what he said:

      "Guys, you
      can't wish a stock up. Sales drive earnings and
      earnings drive the stock price. It's really a simple
      relationship. Most of you are really pissed because you didn't
      bail out a long time ago. stop fighting here, it's not
      going to fix your problem. Eddie use to piss me off
      also but guess what....he was right. Don't you just
      hate that?"

      You may HATE my posts...but you've
      got to LOVE my advice.

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