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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

  • threedeedong threedeedong Jan 29, 2013 7:34 PM Flag

    Look at the open interest on the puts for FEB - looks like its gunna tank big

    Some very big bearish bets being made on FIO for this earnings. Scary!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • With IV on the Feb puts above 100, there is a terrific chance to sell premium that will melt away the day after earnings. Even if FIO tanks, the IV will adjust in the put seller's favor and provide a chance to get out of a short Feb put position reasonably. Bulls especially should short OTM Feb puts going into earnings.

    • You are apparently unfamiliar with the concept of hedging. Many pros, including ourselves, often short shares against long positions to reduced net longs, especially on relatively small caps where things are hard to buy (without really chasing the price) once they get running.

      As for puts, yeah, there are many good hedging strategies and also biased trades to bet up or down, but for the most part, outsixed put/call ratios are a sign of retail fear and a tremendous contraindicator.

      Several issues have pushed these shares down as has been discussed here of late. The macro, legacy players losing ground to FIOs solution (installs and order book), poor street understanding of FIOs technology and competitive position, the Virident trade by antiquated STX, EMC and HP's recent moves to seek relevance, and the lack of understanding of FIOs willingness to embrace Open/licensing would be a great start to the list.

      Then you have the gumps posting their ignorance here... but dumb as the vocals one are, they likely have no less understanding than the pm who have bailed on the sector entirely because "enterprise spending on [legacy] storage is down." Altogether, it spells compeeling opportunity to buy FIO at close the the ipo price even though revenues have double a couple times already and will again within 18 months.

 
FIO
9.41-0.13(-1.36%)Apr 17 4:01 PMEDT

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