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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

  • jlbhgb jlbhgb Jan 31, 2013 2:26 PM Flag

    Dusting off today... and adding a few more after last night's sub $16 buys...

    Barring a big change in information available, the shares are a gift down here.

    There is no question that strategic customer revenue shift is a big disappointment and the shares have been taken out to the shouse for it -- deservedly so. In fact, given the massive volume seen in the after hours and based on the 30 pages of new idiots joining the ranks of FIO bashing idiots here like that jaywillis twit who says he calls people out here and is so stupid as to try assigning blame for his losses on others (the guy obviously struggles with personal responsibility for his own actions and lack of intellect).

    Yet the magnitude of guidance drop, if it were perceived as somehow actually impairing revenue for more than a temporary period and actually represented something had failed here other than lack of rigor on forecasting, would have taken the shares down a bunch more than it has.

    Who was it, other than us, who gobbled up all those 5m shares and another 5m today while they are on fire sale clearance? We'll suggest it is pm who actually understand the story and have the foresight, wisdom and knowledge to be patient waiting for the core/oem deals to ramp, the new hyperscale clients (incl China Mobile and the Chinese transaction processor they revealed today and likely have more applic coming on) and ramping on the new scaleable products, including those where no new qualification work is needed.

    So now they have expectations floored (CS, a longtime bull obviously got slammed around by his boss and dropped his PT to $17 pending forward clarity), and still players like Blackrock (which doubled its position from 3.8m to 7.7m shares during the Dec Q while the stock ranged between $22 and $31) are likely on the bid for more.

    As I wrote last night, we think that the Open news is only a peek at what is coming... but ask yourself why FIO is invited to 4 conferences as keynote/key presenters with Dave and exec tech guys over the next few weeks. FIO's board and software is the legit game changer (not the server side SSD -- using SSD for that purpose)... even if they suffer some order flow lumps while remaining able and willing to jump when critical strategic customers ask them to jump.

    If you are long, you can pretty much ignore all of the idiots posting bash bs here... it is clear they don;t understand anything about the story or tech. But do listen to the call or at least read the transcript before selling out your shares -- and ask yourself why the pm who had serious hedge shorts on are taking them off today in big numbers... the answer to that is they understand the story here, and if anything the day of sale to CSCO, NTAP, ORCL or similar strategic partner (compare with large "strategic customer").

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    • shanek007@att.net shanek007 Apr 12, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

      Hey Squeeze/jlbhgb since the aforementioned 10m share pickup (lol).... Noticed you say you bought on Feb 26 and April 3 too...... How's The price action been treating you???? Just think you can get some more of this POS on super duper clearance red tag half off sale here in a couple more weeks!!!! Maybe you can pawn your narcissism for a couple bucks a share after you go broke.....Jack #$%$ ..... Have a great weekend

    • Jlb,

      I agree with what you said in general. The trade today was of dump, cover and accumulation. The analyst action was mostly designed to cover their own exuberance in earlier opinions - and whatever negativity they dropped today can be easily retrieved as soon as they are more certain that the quarterly miss in guidance was as described, simply a question of timing.

      I was riveted by the overall caliber of the analysts who were asking the questions on the CC. These are big players, not the fellas with an office in Orlando and Phoenix. Clearly, the investment community that follows techland waiting for The Next Big Thing has been circling this tree for awhile. I didn't count the number of callers, but if there were four downgrades and one lonely vocal supporter, there were plenty more who didn't issue a peep - apparently not having enough of an altered opinion to verbalize it.

      Wall Street protects its own interests first, and no one would like to take credit for recently steering clients into FIO, it is prudent to tell them to Hold until more clarity is certain. And they will be bugging FB and Apple and very other likely customer for details over ramps in purchasing before pounding the table again.

      Management sounded supremely confident that such 'faith' was well-placed and I tend to think they may be right. And while we try to think who else could be as large a fish as Apple in the data pool, that is like Thomas Watson never guessing computers could become commonplace. It stands to reason that every business with enough usage to support a server could benefit from faster, cheaper and more flexible storage technology.

      The risk here is seemingly always what we do not know. Is there a crack team at EMC working on something similar and with a massive development budget? After all, in tech, there are rising and fading stars all the time and the trick is to be solidly sure of the ones you invest in. I was resigned to selling until reading the CC carefully for weakness that I did not find. I was prepared today to buy, but only if the discount was compelling. I may never get the chance (hard to tell with all the covering). But I say this is still a winner.

      And, in the spirit of seemingly everyone else, I think there is a big buyout coming from U-Haul. Moving and Storage is their next big concept. Or not.

    • if i was short here i would becareful chatter is some large tech company looking to buy fio.
      maybe emc or apple is my thought.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • shanek007@att.net shanek007 Jan 31, 2013 3:54 PM Flag

      You remind me of those kids in school that always had to try and one up everybody while spinning their yarns, yearning to be liked by the group.....every time you mention price specific numbers on stock price you/they/whoever your numbers are at the top or bottom depending on sells or buys...Still not liked by others and overcompensating with terrible stock calls..... I would think whoever you pump for would give you a day or two off. Then you could become your alter ego and keep the shenanigans going....lol

 
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