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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

  • jaywillis420 jaywillis420 Feb 1, 2013 7:46 PM Flag

    FIO Technicals

    Support at $17, resistance at $17.90, break down =$16.50, break out = $18.70.. Right now its over sold if not getting there. High risk short. Right now any big upside move will probably end around $18.70. The bears want fusion Io as low as possible going into the end of February so that they can collect on their puts at expiry. Would suggest selling long on the bounce off the oversold condition. Any move upside $20 may take 6 - 12 months. A play might be sell off the bounce, short into Feb expiry, and reinvest mid April catching next run up into earnings, but don't get emotionally attached, earnings are most likely going to be just as wonderful.

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    • Can't have technicals when you don't have fundamentals... technically, FIO has no fundamentals... what you have is a guess that the top two customers return in 6 months... 6 months???... that's a freakin' lifetime in this business... one thing we DO know is we don't know the REAL reason BOTH of their biggest customers STOPPED buying at the SAME time for the SAME duration... 80 million for next quarter??? from who???... what if the "second tiers" decide, taking A/FB 's lead, to delay their purchases for reasons unknown or unexplained or simply not divulged... you've got a company that shaved off a minimum of 100 million in revenue and goes from being profitable to losing money... the current stock price does not reflect the seriousness of the situation... my bet this qtr's revenue won't reach 73 million... think that can't happen???... aftershocks happen all the time...

      Sentiment: Sell

      • 2 Replies to straight01shot
      • "one thing we DO know is we don't know the REAL reason BOTH of their biggest customers STOPPED buying at the SAME time for the SAME duration"

        Listen to the call again. The CEO made it clear by saying since their IPO they went quarter after quarter with Facebook ordering when Apple hadn't and vice versa. He called it something like the law of small numbers. Which makes sense if you stop and think about it. They have customer concentration issues represented by Facebook and Apple. Facebook is now public and Apple is facing more financial scrutiny. So if you flip two coins half a dozen times how long until both coins end up heads? From what I took away it was like they had one coin turn up heads and one tails. So the odds were actually pretty good in this macro environment that both of their largest customers would delay installations. This is like both coins coming up heads at the same time. He also said their other business is growing at over 50% year over year. That sounds like a pretty healthy company who will probably have a blowout quarter in the next twelve months when these two big customers release the pending orders. What FIO needs to do is grow their other business faster. Which is probably why we saw the IO Scale announcement and a bunch of new customers over 1 million in purchases. I wouldn't be surprised if that number continues to grow over the next twelve months. More customers is like having more coins to flip. The likelihood of all of them coming up heads becomes less likely the more you have to flip. We should tell their CEO this is called the law of large numbers and what he should be focusing on :-)

      • I think you have it right, straight01shot. Cody Willard who was a huge fan, even active Marketwatch promoter of FIO just sold all of his holdings in FIO today. He spoke to management personally this week and was not reassured...

    • preferredplumbing1@sbcglobal.net preferredplumbing1 Feb 1, 2013 8:28 PM Flag

      idiot

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to preferredplumbing1
      • P/C ratio for FEB 16 is around 2 that means 4.2 million shares want FIO to be less than the bulk at $19 would say $16 is getting greedy, but you never know, it could go there, not a lot driving this stock higher. Also, another point to mention, if fusion IO misses next quarter, then omg, the clip from 21-17 is going to seem mild. This stock is rather risky! BTW what on earth are they spending $17 million on in R&D? I think the best bet for all who lost money is to go get a job there, they must pay well. Another thing that ticks me off is, why are they excs 10 million in stock last quarter, while the share price got clipped almost %50 since. That could have been a dividend, stock buy back. They obviously dont give a kcuf about the share holder. This company had negative earnings all last year and they are paying their excs 10 million in the last quarter, kcuf FUSION IO.

      • Why is he an idiot exactly, because he knows how to trade? When I was trading this stock, I did well. It wasnt until I became and investor that it dropped $3 a share. There is some merit to what he says if onlly because the management team of this business sucks #$%$ right now.

    • Thank you jaywillis420. Great post.

    • At this price it is a great buy for anyone like dell or HP. I am betting on HP.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 

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