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Fusion-io, Inc. Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Feb 7, 2013 12:42 PM Flag

    Stifel Presentation

    Lots of insights in that presentation...

    Guidance
    If you are unhedged short here, you don't need any meaningful analysis or input from management or anyone else. Just get in the queue for the gelding plant. LOL

    If you are long, you really ought to listen to the Stiffel presentation before selling out your shares. Sincerely now... FB, once worried about reliability of using ssd so hard, is now reusing 4 year old flash in new config with FIO specs. Talk about durability and value added.

    They also give more details on ~35% growth to up around $90m q4 in core business through eoy 2013, largely due to growth with a broad base of booked clients on the new ioScale product. regarding FB and AAPL, recently the 70/30 --30/70 mix on roughly 50% of their business, listen to what they say on the presentation. They are "confident they know what those two companies will be doing" and range the current and next quarter at $10-20m for both combined...before getting back to the $60m plus combined run rate for those two companies in recent quarters.

    Open Compute/future of SSD morphing to High Density Non Vol

    Great insights here as to FIO's strategic posturing -- not in the business of selling current and coming lithos, they will move toward letting others do that while they focus on selling software. Cool insights into EMC's threatened revenue stream based on legacy/proprietary systems, and also how FIO lets NTAP (also a mag drive vendor and so also somewhat threatened by FIO's vanguard solutions with flash and coming advanced lithos) so presently more of a reseller of FIO for high end/fiber customers which enables them have an expanded role in the unfolding changed landscape.

    CSCO, just now getting going on FIO equipment, is also the subject of important comments here. CSCO is not yet (i.e., haven't bought FIO yet LOL) directly in the storage business, but that means they aren't taking their own lunch away when they deploy FIO solutions.

    Dave thinks orcl's emphasis is its own closed system, too, sowhile they are in volved in some specs with FIO, they must not be too big on the whole concept of Open Compute (has anyone here mentioned that Facebook engineers were the ones originally advocating the Open Compute concepts? Now they want to do the first all SSD storage center -- pending validation, part of what FIO ceo "knows" about the order book for later this year???). Dave also sees the noisy wannabes as noncontenders and potential newbies as way too far behind/too late.

    Anyway, if you put all that together against the backdrop of my "in play already" thread, it gets easy to see that several players that have strategic interests in controlling the server side flash and coming litho architecture need to partner up or take out someone leading the race there (FIO) before a more ambitious competitor does. Great theater coming here for FIO.

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    • shanek007@att.net shanek007 May 8, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

      bump....

    • bump this to the top every time one of the nubs post bs here. lol

    • Off to dinner, but listen to the last 10 minutes if nothing else. Dave's not arrogant, just speaking his ming, but he almost scoffs at the idea that OCZ or others are any kind of competitive threat, suggesting that only INTC has a serious role to play with a coy tone. LOL

      He also discusses the reality that the M&A market puts them in sights of others. His view is reminiscent of my thread on "In Play Now?"... he shares that it has been terrific being able to be disruptive(server side flash) without ruining a proprietary/legacy hard drive storage franchise, but his recognition that FIO will be a great fold in business for many of the potential acquirors is apparent throughout his "other players" remarks.

      As I wrote on the "in play?" thread, they may already be the subject of ib deal books... if so, as said there, we could see movement on the change in control front before the next CC. Dip S ricaurdi thinks that means within 2 days. LOL And now there are a couple more complete duschet baggettes here too. I'd be shredded to if I shorted this below $16 last week, but i wouldn't try to dis one of the few guys here patiently framing why that is the thinking of an idiot. ROFLOL

      OT
      Special thanks to Einhorn; he's been an idiot since October on GMCR and that has been helpful to our double there excluding short put gains and covered call premia. Thanks to old Dave for his comments on AAPL today, too. His preferred stock piece is bush league, but doing something with massive excess capital is a great point of emphasis there as we have noted in various forums. Our GMCR, TPX, BAC, MAKO and, well, essentially every call save for FIO and AAPL we've aired publicly of late, are all working out beautifully. As for AAPL and FIO, those are return to turn up too. Looking forward to some near term progress on FIO too, though we are already back above our basis here thanks to gumps shorting blindly here since last week. LOL

    • jlbhgb/squeeze ... "Great theater"... at least you got something right... LOL

 

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