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FIO Message Board

  • squeezetracker squeezetracker Oct 17, 2013 11:54 AM Flag

    blown out

    Thrilled to check out at $14 this morning on round trip 5 here.

    Given they aren't in play yet (former ceo still selling out shares = no deal in the works), this is now set up for another fail. Good q numbers = flattish from $mid teens... another miss? Rebuy at $11 and hope they feel compelled to sell vs buying something else non-differentiated.

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    • Now how d'ya like that call? FIO's management and BOD is a real S show.

    • In below 12 out at 14.25 w. ave... nice round trip again. Hey, at $14.50 we may even get short while all th nubs chase it.

      Y'know, if IBM is struggling and missing on their high end IT installs (among other business), then it is likely some oem players are not going to have had a banner 3Q or guide optimistically for the Dec Q, right?

      • 3 Replies to squeezetracker
      • Here is more than us and the OEM's (e.g., IBM) telling you the high end data center business has been slow... direct from Shane himself.
        Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division
        And then what about those 2? Were those the same 2 customers that you had mentioned last quarter, that you thought were going to push fiscal Q2 here back to historic levels, that didn't come through and that's what you're guiding down?

        Shane V. Robison - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Member of Operations Committee
        Yes, at this point, we have many more than 2 hyperscale customers and several of them have delayed some of their data center build outs.
        And, just maybe, d'ya think, some of those customers are evaluating other server side flash alternatives?

        Hey down another buck or three and we'll get back long again... but it you listened to our take on October 17, you got out of your long in the mid $14s vs riding off the cliff with those not paying attention or otherwise unhedged.

        For now, this is dead money... they don't know #$%$ their sales will be for the next two months even, really, and have no visibility beyond that so no guide out there. As for Seagate, EMC, HP or other taking them out soon? Unlikely -- unless you think the former and current exec teams are stupid (for selling shares sub $15). Summation: if you are unhedged long since before the call, you need to hope all goes well for this company for a few quarters so someone wants to buy them.

        We'll let you know if we decide to take a flyer on that happenstance, but we'd like it to see it run down a few bucks first.

      • How you two thumbs down F heads doing tonight? Read what I wrote and try to learn something from your 25% haircut today... worse than we thought.

      • You may be right. I sold some of my position at 14.35. I am still long with the rest and will buy back in more on a dip. My question to everyone is given the low (in my mind) estimates given last quarter and the increase in customers, won't FIO still beat this quarter easily?