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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

  • davebugs davebugs Feb 13, 2008 9:51 AM Flag

    Continued dumping today

    MM was able to defend 8.00 yesterday - not today. Watching pre-market was a bit interesting - someone was trying to unload but the bids were only for 100 most of the time.

    I've lost faith - atleast temporarily. This wasn't caused by outsourcing IR - but I'll tell you - its NEVER a good sign in my experience.

    I should have lightened up then. Atleast I didn't add more in the 12-13 range, then picking up a little yesterday at the very end of the day at 8.25.

    At this point I'd prefer a buyout rather than waiting on the existing folks to execute. Again here is a company much better at executing options than the business plan. And now in essence we will be borrowing money to pay those options - and not at very favorable rates(or dilution). I've seen this movie before (just like outsourcing IR) and typically it ends poorly for shareholders.

    I'm all for a fella being rewarded - lets just wait until there is something to be rewarded for. I'm getting the feeling that we're NOT in this together.

    At best this is now more of a trade than an investment. The trades oportunities will probably be based on buyout rumors more than an execution story.

    So much potential.... perhaps someone else will realize this.

    Dave

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    • Dave,

      I think my thoughts are somewhere between yours and O&B.

      I'm a big believer in the product, not so much management though to their credit it seems to me Nxstage is a much safer speculation now than a couple of years ago. To me a lot of uncertainty is gone. Home dialysis is real, people want it, multi thousands of treatments have been safely done. More clinical data says it is better for patients. Major hospitals and clinics have signed deals with and support Nxstage. The Medisystem deal really has brought scale and diversification to Nxstage and prevented them from being taken over on the cheap.

      In my mind I just can't see financing coming in any other form than more stock. Dilution is bad for share holders but would 5 million more shares really be the end of the world?

      I'm still in it for the long haul and will likely add shares at some point. I just hate to overpay if I don't have to and I do feel like there is a lot of short term downward pressure on the stock.

    • I'd wait to see how forthcoming they are and how they execute getting ready for the financing in the fall. Whatever form the financing takes will not be good for the stock. I think it's dead money until then and will probably go down more then.

      I bought a little at 8.25 before hearing/reading the call and wish I wouldn't have.

      I also wish I would have sold like the last poster when the IR red flag was raised. This is the first stock that I've ever held onto after that has happened. It is a general rule of thumb that I use. Just like sell anything Cramer likes the day after it's mentioned and buy it back a week later. When a stock has doubled sell half - no matter what. Those kinds of rules of thumb.

      I was blinded by the potential here.

      I'm not a cheer leader. I'd like to think I'm a realist. My optimism for the company in this configuration isn't near what it was. I've always shared my views and research - and encouraged others to do the same. My research is now hindered, execution isn't taking place as planned, more financing on the way. Any of them sound like positives?

      They still have THE product it appears.


      Frustrating for shareholders. Officers have options to help them feel better immediately while the shareholders future is becoming much more uncertain. I would even say this has a negative effect on the potential quality of life improvements for possible potential users. It will take them longer to experience the System One.

      I keep looking for the good. O&B sees it - I'm a bit more jaded.

      I'm not closed minded. I'll be trying to re-evaluate but with the extra IR layer that will be difficult. Like I said - the only reason I'm currently holding is incase of a buyout. The one fella owning so much of the stock doesn't help that - that's why that has been a concern from the beginning of the Medisys deal.

      While I made clear it was speculative I have many friends and a few clubs that own this stock. They haven't traded it like I have so they are all under water. I think it may be too late to sell, too early to buy, doubt I'll even average down until I see something positive.

      I'd be curious as to other's views. Investors, employees, users, folks that are actively involved in the dialysis market place.

      So much potential....

      Dave

    • Do any of the more experienced traders on this board think we are in sight of a bottom? Or would you wait to buy until volume settles down to pre call levels?

    • Dave,
      Why are you concerned about the intentions and ability of NxStage's management? I am happy with their execution. Great progress has been made. The only missteps I've seen have been with earnings guidance and results being off, which is of secondary concern right now.

      The most important thing in my view is that they are moving along fine with the FREEDOM clinical trial, making progress in Washington, maintaning a very high level of quality and goodwill, and most of all they have been very successful in their marketing efforts.

      The outsourcing IR thing doesn't seem like a big deal to me. There are probably pros and cons to doing so, but as in most business cases, the financial incentive for outsourcing is very worthwhile. As shareholders we should be happy about saving money.

      Well I'm going to keep typing until I bring NxStage back into the teens. (kidding) So I look forward to your response.

      • 1 Reply to orangeandblack4
      • O&B,

        This is the second major problem. The first was the cartridge leak. In the end they handled that well. In the beginning and in testing not so good. After they really had no choice for confidence's sake they did pull the whole lot. Definately the responsible thing to do - and it was worth the hit. The fact that it was missed, not tested for, whatever in QA just isn't acceptable for a new groundbreaking medical device.

        The next issue is what I've stated here several times. THEY HAVE THE APPROVED PRODUCT!! It should virtually revolutionize the industry. I really can't believe that it would be hard to 'sell'. I could understand a shortage of trainers, the time it takes to train patients, etc.

        I still don't care for the Medisys aquisition and the fact that one person controls so much of the stock.

        I just think they aren't executing that well and the upcoming secondary or loan(with crappy terms) is a major concern. The odds are that this will cause the stock to take another nose dive when it is announced. Along those lines I find it a bit intolerable that they reward themselves with options for immediate satisfaction while the rest of us will be waiting for some time to see a return. Doesn't seem like we're on the same team does it?

        I don't have a problem holding an investment for some time to get a payback. Particularly a speculative company. I just see the only speculative part of this company the buildout which should be relatively easy. They have the product!

        I just think they are fumbling the ball. At this current time and without decent access to the company, I'd rather see the product sold. As in someone buying NXTM out that has the capital and ability to do the rollout.

        If I were a dialysis patient I believe that would serve me best as well.

        Had I actually been able to speak with someone knowledgable at the company I might have a slightly different view.

        I don't really have the time for a good thorough response this evening but I'll be unavailable most of tomorrow so I thought that I'd post something.

        In short I think this is a major miss. I would suggest I'm not the only one that feels this way based on the selloff. I'm also concerned about the upcoming secondary or loan. After the next funding is accomplished I don't know how confident that I am in managements ability to continue the buildout. Adding the level in IR doesn't help me either.

        It's easy enough to sell - which I might do. But these folks have THE product. There is so much potential here. I just don't think they are executing well enough.

        If you remove the old Medisys guy's shares from the 45% inside ownership I don't think there is much insider holdings left really.

        If you add the insider and institutional ownership you get 120% - neat trick. That means a lot of the institutional folks they think are their 'friends' are shorting the stock. Possibly while they are getting fee's for loans, secondary's, private placements, etc.


        The whole rollout and financial situation are getting muckier at the exact time they should be getting clearer. They did sidestep a question or two on the call. This leads me to believe that perhaps the murkieness is by design. That really upsets me.

        Gotta run.

        Dave

 
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