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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

  • davebugs davebugs Feb 28, 2008 11:42 AM Flag

    Hoper - where are you?

    Waiting on the 5's to buy?

    I still doubt I'll add until I see a several day bounce.

    This thing could go to almost zero by the end of the year.

    I'm not into shorting, and don't even know if this can be shorted. But it's certainly a good candidate. I don't see the possibility of good news until atleast next year. Until recapatilization is in place (in the fall) this stock is dead money at best I would think. Then dillution in the fall (or lots more leverage).

    Anybody here actually short this?

    Don't know who has the potential of being dealt the worse hand. Investors or potential users. Don't worry - management always seems to do o.k. for themselves.

    BTW the company that I dumped a while ago that outsourced IR had disappointing earnings again today - IPGP.

    I might suggest that you all add this to your list of items to watch at any companies that you invest in. I've NEVER seen it be a good sign. If I buy a stock on fundamental analysis then find this out later I sell it - like IPGP with a slight profit. But it's basically been down sense. Look at what has happened here at NXTM.

    I'm certainly not saying that causes the slide. But it's been relatively accurate predictor in my experience. I mostly invest in small companies. It's a key indicator of managements committment to individual shareholders to me. Companies should want individual shareholders. We're a lot more 'sticky' and not fast money like the institutions.

    Let me put it this way. Every small company that I own that I can think of that has real IR(typically the CFO) has either made me money or I believe will make me money(and often have made me money in the past). Those that outsource IR I typically don't invest in (or sell) and often still monitor. I guess it could be a coincidence - time after time. After all it's different public companies, probably different companies performing the IR service. But it's not a positive. I think of it as a symptom.

    Anyone else ever notice this?

    Have similar or dis-similar experiences?

    Dave

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    • Dave,
      Nothing you've said has offended me, and no I'm not involved with the company except as a shareholder.

      I do really like the company as an investment though, and I occasionally think it's worthwile to rebut what I perceive to be misinformation being deciminated in a public forum about the company.

      I think it's a shame that some have gotten shaken out by volatility, at exactly the time they should be holding firm. I don't really care that much, but I would prefer for any people that read the message board on NxStage to receive accurate information. So yes I will continue to offer a different view if I don't agree with what you post. If I'm annoying you, there's a good chance I won't be around as soon as the weather gets nice enough to get outside in the garden.

      So hang in there, soon you can offer your analysis unchallenged!

    • O&B,

      Why don’t you point out that I used to speak with the CFO after you stated that he didn’t handle those issues? You’re really picking what to respond to. And frankly I’m having trouble understanding what I think was meant as a smart remark/shot at me.

      It almost sounds like you are personally involved (and thus take offense) with current execution.

      Execution isn’t just the past Qtr’s numbers(hindsight). It’s execution against the business plan (looking forward), and where along that plan we are and how the plan is evolving. Think ‘upcoming funding’ that will probably have poor terms and/or significant dilution.

      In short I don’t have access like in the past to knowledgeable folks at NXTM.

      If you think they are executing up to (actually you seem to think BETTER than) expectations why has the stock gotten cut in half?

      They still have THE PRODUCT – what I’ve been saying all along. The execution does worry me – and apparently I am not the only one – how’s your investment in NXTM doing?

      You are correct in that I see many more negatives than I used to – there were always some negatives. I just don’t have my old ‘level of comfort’ holding this stock without getting to speak with the folks that I used to speak with. This is a large part of why I don’t post as much as I used to. We’re left to discuss and making investment decisions on interpretations of non-timely facts that are spoon fed to us rather than some real current research.

      I’m not looking to argue – I’m looking to discuss. My sentiment is much more negative than it was in the fall. Judging by the stock price I’d say more folks in line with my thinking that yours. This could be an opportunity or a pending disaster – only time will tell. I’m just holding my shares for now – too late to sell and too early to buy. I do have a long term perspective not like a lot of institutional money.

      I invest mostly in microcap and small companies so I do understand growing pains in the form of execution issues, funding, majority ownership, etc.

      You can criticize my views, and the reasons for them, but folks are voting with their feet – and they aren’t coming TO this stock.

      Just my opinions/observations. It’s difficult anymore to discuss timely issues with the company for some of the reasons discussed above. Therefore the stock is suffering and this MB is suffering. Also it isn’t looking good for any discussion here of current happenings to do with NXTM. When positive things aren’t happening this is still viewed as a win from management. Lack of info is better than non-favorable info. If the info isn’t timely they can always tell you how great they are doing since then.

      BTW an overcome negative was the leaking cart’s.

      An ongoing negative is the Medisys guy owning such a large portion(anyone with that large of a stake concerns me – particularly that isn’t a founder – nothing to do with this fella personally).

      The overwhelming potential here still could be quite amazing. It’s the only reason that I just haven’t sold and moved on.

      If you would like to continue to discuss facts – or continue to try and pick me apart personally, insinuate who I have and haven’t communicated with please start another thread. This one is getting a bit beat up. Just remember that facts are getting harder to come by – Oops – we’re almost back to the IR thing!

      But I appreciate you’re trying to set me straight. The market clearly has your view…

      Regards,

      Dave

    • Dave,

      If you truely want to be objective, I'll do you a favor and point something out. You wrote:

      "I am objective(have to be in order to make money), and was likeing what I was seeing here as far as potential. Know I don't have any information other than an ugly CC, outsourced IR, execution problems, and more financing/dilution on the way."

      Is an ugly CC, outsourced IR, execution problems, and more financing/dilution the only information you have about the company? Or are those the list of potentially negative things you can think of?

      So if you are truely interested in being objective, you're welcome.
      I hope you can profit from a realistic view of the stock.

      There aren't any execution problems when they just reported >100% growth in revenue, and predict the same growth rate this year, same goes for the "ugly CC" since they reported those growth numbers which are the most important measure of a small growth company (obviously?), and the outsourced IR concern is a joke in my opinion.

    • Whatever, but FYI.

      I have spoken with the CFO in the past - Robert Brown - several times since the IPO. I thought that I had talked with a lady by the name of Deanne Roby before talking with Mr. Brown atleast one last fall. Both were very helpful, knowledgable and prompt.

      I don't believe that I have ever spoken with Ms. Marks.

      I do know that probably less than a month before earnings when I called Mr Brown and left a voice mail and sent two emails that the now 'outsourced' IR lady called me to inform me that she'd call me later (like a few days) and never did.
      I couldn't hear her well enough to know her name.

      I never did hear from Mr Brown - that isn't good. Even to pawn me off to the new IR lady (and yes, I would have had a problem with that as well - but not near the problem that I have with access now).

      I never received more than an introductory call from the outsourced IR lady - who never followed up. I understand they may have been in their quiet period but I literally don't even know her name, number, etc. That much she certainly could have disclosed.

      I appreciate your input and link. I still stand by my opinion that it's much tougher to come by information at the company. This coincided/preceeded a bunch of bad news that has cut the stock in half in a week or so, 35% in one day.

      Any disagreements with me on this?

      If I can't get to info I'm certainly not adding - would anyone with any sense?

      Assuming that they read this MB I may now never have access to decent information. This also means that a former champion of the stock will be no more. I don't truely know the extent of the holdings that I'm indirectly responsible for but I'd say they are significant.

      I am objective(have to be in order to make money), and was likeing what I was seeing here as far as potential. Know I don't have any information other than an ugly CC, outsourced IR, execution problems, and more financing/dilution on the way.

      I call'm as i see'm. If you look back at my posts I believe you'll see this. This stock is shaping up to be a major disappointment.

      You seem to know a lot about the company. If you'd like to email me at yahoo I'll check that mailbox every few days and sort thru the Spam.

      I'd love to learn more about the company - thus my frustration.

      Regards,

      Dave

    • Hi Dave!

      I have been an investor in NXTM in the past and have watched it regularly for the last 1-2 yrs. I appreciate your cogent writing. Please tell me, what is IR that you refer to ...
      Tx

      • 1 Reply to pjhatbpi
      • Investor Relations.

        To me the outsourcing of IR is usually a symptom as I have said here. And I've never seen it be a symptom of good things to come. Someday I'll be wrong - and will admit so. I just haven't see it be wrong in my experience yet.

        Now if/when companies bring IR back in house that should tell you something as well. That would be a potential good symptom.

        It used to be a tipoff to me to do more DD (which ironically is made more difficult by outsourcing IR). Based on what's happened here it will hold more weight in my future assessments. I think this is about the 6th time that something similar to this has happened with a stock that I follow(most of which I no longer own). In hindsight the wisest move 5 out of 6 times would have been to sell. The 6th instance has been dead maney for 2 years.

        How do you like them odds?

        It's very easily defended by management. I can't call it a cause and effect relationship. That would probably give IR too much emphasis. I prefer to think of it as a symptom. But it will be even more of a factor in my future stock analysis - particularly if IR is outsourced or brought back inside.

        Dave

    • Dave,

      Thanks for the post.

      I still like nxtm because it will not be impact by recession. and it can grewth since when the patients use ti, they must stay with it.

      I am waiting an enter point.

      thanks.

      Hudson

    • I have never payed much attention to IR before but it makes sense to outsource just before you do something boneheaded or disappointing. Let someone else handle the irate calls and email right? It's something I will pay much more attention to in the future and appreciate you pointing it out Dave.

      As far as shorting NXTM who knows? It seems like it could go definitely drift lower. Everyone talks about being a patient long term investor but it seems like hardly anyone actually is. With the way my luck has been running as far as the stock market goes I'm sure if i tried to short NXTM they would get a buyout offer the next day.

      A nimble trader could probably make money trading in and out of NXTM on a daily basis but I'm not in a position to watch everyday and I'm probably not smart enough either. I think my best bet is to watch and wait and try to pick at a bottom. If anyone has any advice about how to do that please let me know. lol.

      I'm still a believer in NXTM and want to add shares but I also want a bargain if I can get it.

      Jack

      • 1 Reply to traderjack98
      • trader,

        Don't chase this stock. I mostly buy and hold then trade around a long position. Never buying or selling all the shares at one time. NXTM is my biggest disappointment in a long time. I knew it was speculative. Management used to be forthcoming. Atleast back when the stock was doing well they were.

        I'd wait for 3-5 UP days before averaging down - and I still wouldn't buy all that I may want at that one buy.

        The IR thing is almost like when someone retires 'to spend more time with the family'. It's a lack of committment of management to own up to retail shareholders and prostitute themselves to institutions. It also adds a very effective non-value added layer so it's hard to tell what's going on with the company. If good things aren't happenning this could certainly have it's uses. If the CFO(or similar) is too busy or too important to be bothered they should staff up accounting or find another CFO.

        Good companies don't benefit from outsourcing IR. The cost savings just aren't worth the confidence impact.

        The first call that I make to a company while doing DD I ask if IR is outsourced. It's that important to me.

        Like I said it's often a symptom of the company/management and has little to do with the competence of the IR person. The outsourced IR person just simply can't do as good of a job in quality or promptness since they are asking someone else for all but the most basic of answers.

        It's the old lipstick on a pig. It causes me to look for the pig that I didn't originally notice in some cases. Too soon to tell here with NXTM but the lipstick has certainly been applied and it's starting to squeal!

        It seems to have coincidentally happened at about the time the prognosis has darkened. And now management can hide from those pesky questions from investors effectively.

        Like I said. I've seen this movie before. I hope this time is different. It doesn't give me a warm fuzzy feeling. Then consider the recent results and the outlook for the rest of the year.

        Dave

    • Thanks for polite and sensible reply.

      Best wishes.

 
NXTM
18.84+0.52(+2.84%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT