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BJ's Restaurants, Inc. Message Board

  • soppak soppak Mar 14, 2002 11:29 PM Flag

    All this discussion

    regarding the warrants is ridiculous.

    For every warrant exercised there will be that many more shares that can be sold.

    It's not going to be what you think. The exercise of the warrants will NOT propel this stock higher.

    IMO, you may be witnessing some manipulation of the common to induce warrant holders to convert. That does not seem like a healthy environment for serious longs. If you are long here maybe you should consider scaling out as the stock goes higher. The stock will most likely come under pressure after the warrants are exercised.

    If you own the warrants and don't intend on exercising you are playing with fire and will probably get burned.

    IMO, the stock is at or near fair value at its current level and the underlying fundamentals will need to catch up with the stock price.

    The restaurant concept is great but stock prices matter. Be careful.

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    • <<regarding the warrants is ridiculous.

      For every warrant exercised there will be that many more shares that can be sold.

      It's not going to be what you think. The exercise of the warrants will NOT propel this stock higher>>

      This has been discussed here for many months, actually years, and much has been revealed by those with vast warrant experience (not me). Seriously, I doubt you could catch up with all the info by April 8th. Watch and learn.

      • 2 Replies to lhn5
      • (off topic--perhaps): I personally consider my own "cash flow" as follows:... On February 1st I had, for example, $100,000 (cash) in my checking and savings accounst... (all bills were paid, some pre-paid..)... On March 1st, I had $150,000 in the checking and savings... (all the bills were paid, some were pre-paid... Now, THAT, is what I consider to be positive cash flow.. and keep in mind, total debt remained ZERO, meaning I paid compound interest to no one.... (I also, at least to me, do not consider the changes in "asset value" as part of this particular measure... I don't like debt and I don't fully rely on asset value as a determinant of true wealth, because the value of assets is changing, and so is the value of the money, btw...) If the account from above would have decreased to $50,000, then I would consider the "cash flow" to be negative, no matter what I acquired or purchased during that time... To me, the cash got lower, so cash flow was negative... And that is how I look at cash flow personally... It is also a way in looking at companies, imo... I very much consider the lack of debt and the presence of real cash to be a great positive, especially if growth is being achieved at the same time... This is what I will "pay-up" for in the way of buying shares of common stocks... usually... Playing with options and warrants is very much a different ball game....

      • I'm not sure what you are even talking about. Please clarify.

        Will the exercise be positive or negative? I kinda view it like an IPO. They usually never turn out that great for at least 18 months to two years.

        The warrants if exercised don't even have an underwriter like most IPO's so they will not even be supported upon conversion.

        What underlying fundamental is going to propel the stock to "breakout"? At $7 the market cap is $84 million and with eight million more shares outstanding if converted the mkt cap explodes to $140 million at $7. For a company producing $5 million in cash flow from operations? Looks very expensive to me.

        There are danger signals flashing here. Do you see them?

        Again, be careful.

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