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Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X ETF Message Board

  • hammondkeys hammondkeys Nov 1, 2009 5:27 PM Flag

    Putting it into perspective

    OK. I am an amateur chart reader, admittedly. Back in April of this year the charts were telling me that RIFIN should hit 825. Anyone remember that? I owe an apology. RIFIN, which was in the mid 500's at the time, missed by almost 2 points hitting 825 when it eeked over 823 a couple of weeks back.

    Later I called for an EVENTUAL target in RIFIN over 1000. I am still thinking that is ON the table BUT never said that would happen any time SOON.

    I now think that we will go back and hit the neckline on the inverse head and shoulders patterns in both the S&P and RIFIN. Thing is, the S&P has further to go because the banks have lagged as the S&P has advanced.

    I think we see support in the S&P at 950-960. Clearly that could fail, but such a move would NOT destroy the original 'intent' revealed in the chart though it would make it tenuous as prices reach that level. RIFIN should find support around 670 where its neckline is.

    Tomorrow I plan on selling all long positions except for metals and one biotech. It will hurt as almost everything will be sold at a loss. However, that is due to recent turnover in my stocks. Sold biotechs for good gains about 5 weeks ago as well as FAS and DRN for decent gains too. My downfall has been the casinos that decided to dive off the face of the earth. I may hold some shares of LVS that I bought just last Friday near the day's lows. If it shows any strength tomorrow then tight stops may be the way to close that out.

    I am looking PERHAPS for a pop in the morning. Looks like things broke the down channel late Friday afternoon and did a little back test. In fact, the case could be made that the whole sell-off on Friday was a back test from the strong move on Thursday but I do not think that changes the overall tenor of the markets right now. If we are fortunate it will mostly just provide some strength to sell into.

    I was thinking we may get a head and shoulders developing here with a move in the S&P to 1050 or 1060 but as Oscar points out, the transports have been leading and they did NOT make such a pattern. They made a double top. Maybe they rally now and the broader markets do too for a H&S top. I am not counting on it.

    I do NOT think the bull is dead. An 8 month long bottom pattern after a 20 month long bear market would not typically result in a 4 month rally after pattern breakout. I think the bull returns after shorts have bitten off more than they can chew... once again.

    Just my opinion.

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