OK. I am an amateur chart reader, admittedly. Back in April of this year the charts were telling me that RIFIN should hit 825. Anyone remember that? I owe an apology. RIFIN, which was in the mid 500's at the time, missed by almost 2 points hitting 825 when it eeked over 823 a couple of weeks back.
Later I called for an EVENTUAL target in RIFIN over 1000. I am still thinking that is ON the table BUT never said that would happen any time SOON.
I now think that we will go back and hit the neckline on the inverse head and shoulders patterns in both the S&P and RIFIN. Thing is, the S&P has further to go because the banks have lagged as the S&P has advanced.
I think we see support in the S&P at 950-960. Clearly that could fail, but such a move would NOT destroy the original 'intent' revealed in the chart though it would make it tenuous as prices reach that level. RIFIN should find support around 670 where its neckline is.
Tomorrow I plan on selling all long positions except for metals and one biotech. It will hurt as almost everything will be sold at a loss. However, that is due to recent turnover in my stocks. Sold biotechs for good gains about 5 weeks ago as well as FAS and DRN for decent gains too. My downfall has been the casinos that decided to dive off the face of the earth. I may hold some shares of LVS that I bought just last Friday near the day's lows. If it shows any strength tomorrow then tight stops may be the way to close that out.
I am looking PERHAPS for a pop in the morning. Looks like things broke the down channel late Friday afternoon and did a little back test. In fact, the case could be made that the whole sell-off on Friday was a back test from the strong move on Thursday but I do not think that changes the overall tenor of the markets right now. If we are fortunate it will mostly just provide some strength to sell into.
I was thinking we may get a head and shoulders developing here with a move in the S&P to 1050 or 1060 but as Oscar points out, the transports have been leading and they did NOT make such a pattern. They made a double top. Maybe they rally now and the broader markets do too for a H&S top. I am not counting on it.
I do NOT think the bull is dead. An 8 month long bottom pattern after a 20 month long bear market would not typically result in a 4 month rally after pattern breakout. I think the bull returns after shorts have bitten off more than they can chew... once again.
Just my opinion.
I am also right about another thing...
I called for RIFIN 825 as a target when RIFIN was in the mid 500's.
NOBODY ELSE was making such a call here. Nobody.
Maybe the 'pros' felt that was putting too much on the line.
Oh, one more thing I am right about. You're a jerk.
HK if the market does not tank LVS should run some on Monday IMO. Showed great strength on Friday. I have read more on LVS today and really like their prospects for a strong 2010. Valuations should reflect that soon IMO. GL tomorrow.
Here is some additional perspective from something I posted on 11 OCT:
We see SPX again rallying for the second time through the lower portion of Oscar's "vacuum' area for several days. The easy rally through this portion of the "vacuum" area with virtually no resistance as well provided virtually no support on the way down. Easy money for the bulls going up and easy money for the bears going down. Lets hope we get enough momentum up to leave this area quickly...
I would love for that to happen. I am not holding my breath though.
Anything is possible. One thing that is definitely ugly is the DJT. Oscar has been keying to the transports as he claims they have been the market leader. They are definitely in the crapper BUT watch them tomorrow. Maybe if they rally big that tells us that there may be some life left here. At least enough to hit 1060 or better for a less painful exit for longs.
I would NOT short there. If it stalls in the 1060 area and then pierces back down to under 1020 then we have a high percentage short play on a small head and shoulders pattern break down. If prices then take out 960 or so on the S&P then we may be looking at a more serious situation. In time.
I like your new outfit there Ell. If it stays that is. Im with you, could run up or down. All those guys on Friday they interviewed down in the trading pit saying S&P had to hold 1042 because "there just wasnt anything below that". LOL!!! It can spring board to 1065 in the morning for no reason that "they" can forsee just as easy as anything.
Gold will top 1300. Don't ask me if this is fundamentally the 'right' thing for it to to. I don't know. I just see that happening due to the chart pattern, an inverted H&S consolidation that made a right shoulder in a very tight and well formed consolidation.
Sure, it could fail. But betting on it failing is going against the odds.
AND YOU put it right in your post u say u may hold some lvs
lmfao told u that junk was targeting 11 and 8 atleast 3 weeks ago
I'M not gonna tell ya what its targeting now because u r intent on thinking u know what u r doing WHEN u are just as blind as the average BULL
anyone can count bull targets
but you sure have a problem counting bear targets
U still don't understand u are in a CYCLE bear market do ya?
GEEZ took u 3 weeks to figure out the chart?
THAT AIN'T CHARTING thats thinking u are good at something BUT only looking one way
BULL???????????? yeah okay
WATCH THE BEAR
I do not see much of a way for a bear market to EVER have an inverted head and shoulders bottom that spans EIGHT months.
You are a wave counter and for everyone who FUKKING KNOWS that S&P goes to 400 there is another one who FUKKING knows it goes to 2000.
Get over yourself. I picked my target in RIFIN almost 300 points ago and it missed by less than TWO points.
What was YOUR call in April of 2009?