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United States Oil Message Board

  • redwhite35 redwhite35 Nov 20, 2008 5:18 AM Flag

    I'm out of the markets now but

    I believe something big, and I mean like a major international event is about to happen that could cause the dollar to stop appreciating and cause commodities to bottom. I've been following the news lately and countries are slowly moving away from the dollar. Be very careful being overly short commodities at these levels in this market. Other countries are getting tired of this game and are losing their trust in the USA. There are also many analysts that have come on Bloomberg saying that the US may not be the first to lead out of the recession and that the Euro downside is very limited from here to about 1.20 or so. Gold holding up strong at these levels is also telling me that a rally could be coming. When the rally comes in commodities it will be huge. All these bailouts that are out there and the new ones that are coming will be bad, extremely bad for the dollar and the debt is mounting. For those who are overly short commdoities, you may be in for a rude awakening. Trust me, take it from someone who has made a good living doing this, something big is coming.....

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    • Evidence? Buddy go google it. I don't have time for all the evidence! Good Lord you better learn to follow currencies if you want to be in oil. NOOB!!!!!!!!!!

    • Where is the evidence that foreigners have said no to the dollar and no to U.S debt? Have you looked at Treasury yields recently?

    • All I know is, I was early on calling the end of the commodity bull on and I hit it perfectly. Now I'm early on the end of the commodity bear. From $138 to $50 was a great ride, almost 300%. The downside from here is very limited. Oil will not go to zero. I'm a buyer on dips from now on. DXO looks extremely attractive to me. It will be commodities that will bottom first. You can take that to the bank and when it does, the moves will be huge.....

    • I don't see a squeeeeeeeeze, just a kind of leveling off for a while allowing time to do what you want.. Where's demand for ANYTHING material right now, or next year.. Can't have a commodity squeeeeeeeze without that in this environment.. When you see GOLD rising to $1200, maybe something on the money side will be going on, then others might follow..

    • I forgot to mention that commodities stocks are already priced for armageddon. Look at DXO at $3.50. WOW! Is that stock starting to look juicy or what. X at $25? Now that's starting to get a bit crazy for me, specially with all the stimulus by China and other countries. Somethings got to give and I'm starting to think that maybe, just maybe the bear market in commodities has gotten to a critical point of reversal. These stocks are not going to go to zero and a short squeeze is all but coming. The rally in commodity stocks will be huge and so will the dollar sell-off. Even the biggest bears are starting to get bullish on commodities, and these guys are the ones that are right more often then the bulls....

    • Also, notice how the sell-offs in oil are slowing down. Take yesterday for example. Dow down big 427 points, but yet oil down about a buck. That relationship to stocks is fading. There is an analyst that has been dead on all year that is now predicted DOW 6,000 range by February of 2009 and that oil will bottom around $50 or so and begin to go up from there. In fact he sees the dollar index rallying no higher then 90. When he was asked about where he sees oil by February he said to bloomberg that oil could skyrocket back to $100. I should mention that this is the same analyst that said that oil should be in the $50 range when oil was at $125. If he is correct again then we could see DOW 6000 range and oil $100 range by February along with a very weak dollar. This is very interesting......

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