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United States Oil ETF Message Board

  • manylumen manylumen Dec 2, 2008 11:36 PM Flag

    My speculation on price of oil

    For 2009 oil at $50-80.
    2010 oil at $70-90
    2011 oil at $100
    2012 oil at $100-120
    2013 oil at $150+
    basically there is no significant substitute for oil and unlikely, less oil is being found, more oil demand is going to happen, once this recession is over. Access an political issues will only get worse. Emerging energy markets will continue to grow demand and become more significant than at the present time. Demands on energy for agriculture and water and transportation are going to grow. In the past the growing world population had only some impact on energy demand in the future a greater demand from growing population will happen. Cut back in growing supply due to weak oil prices will exaggerate the next price spike which might be 2 year off but will come. Basically as long as people remain employed there will be a floor demand for oil. Also it might not be just opec cutting back but at some point new production is not going to come on line. Several multi billion dollar oil sands projects have been halted so that new supply wont happen for some time and when demand resumes prices should spike.
    So short term who can tell if this is the bottom, but long term it is certain to have new record highs again probably within 5 years.

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