I agree with you 100%. But all you speak of could take a long time to play out, and that is why I said that we "might" one day again see $75 oil. Lets also throw in the fact another "social" factor. China nor any other country doesnt give a rats tail about the exploding population and making sure they all have a piece of the pie. So China's supposed inquenchable thirst for oil makes no sense. I think we will see more civil unrest around the world as the have nots who live in shacks and huts(about 80% of world population) start to see more and more of their neighbors with I-phones and Blackberries and things in 5 years even we Americans cannot fathom. Wars will break out over and over. As we speak there are over 200 conflicts going on all over the world. To most of us, its all just a big.........yawn. Al quida and terrorism feed on poverty stricken people. And if you ever watch the history channel program called "Gangland", you will see we have the same thing brewing right here! Coming soon to a theatre near you. Give it another couple of years. There are boards that say to buy gold in case the dollar fails. But then there are others who say firearms and bullets will be the most valuable thing to own should that happen. Let us pray it does not. I tell people all the time : "You do not want to see $3000 an ounce gold. It means you will be rich if you own it, but will be confined to your house all day as rioting and looting will be rampant." By the way, there is an exact price gold could be manipulated to by the US govt. that would allow it to pay off its entire debt. I will write about that number sometime. I would be delighted to be a contributor to your site and write a few articles. You can email me at my yahoo address with same user name.
"Cocooning" LOL. Haven't heard that old chestnut since Faith Popcorn (yes her real name) popularized the notion 15 or 20 years ago. It's an idea that comes and goes at various times and essentially means nothing because there are always reasons to suggest that 'cocooning' is the latest thing (and it never is). Some people enjoy staying in watching awful tv and awful movies, some like being out. How you tie this in to the price of oil along with your rather obscure world view escapes me.
I'm with looking, and btw anyone who seriously posts a prediction with a 10 year timeline is either kidding or off his medication, possibly both. And anyone who wants that kind of thinking for a journal, website, preprinted toilet paper whatever.....well let's just say they deserve each other. That's a real Algonquin Roundtable you're putting together there kids. Can't wait to not read it.
i like to read posts of people who make sense. One thing to remember is that there are multiple factors to consider in chasing the elusive "price" of oil.I feel certain that worldwide demand will increase, maybe not as rapidly as conoco would like yet it will,i am also certain supply will diminish, i think the worlds oil companies are smart enough to see this and would not spend billions on expensive recovery systems , such as deep ocean,shale and sand extraction if it were not true. That said alternative energy reaching a substantial replacement of oil level is far down the road but coming. In the closer future we will see the negative production effect that these lower prices will cause, reduced exploration, reduced refining, postponed 2008 well projects..these will at a nearer point all effect the shorter term 6mo- 2yr price of oil and cause a supply squeeze. in the end todays price is really relative to your time horizon.peace