we basically have oil back to where it was at $88 again, if you add the 5% in here. You are going to get a serious run in oil here if the dollar can manage to pull back next week.
maybe.....however wednesdays action broke all the rules and the coorelation between oil and dollar was clearly broken....I think its anybodys ballgame at this point and will be left up to speculation..or speculators..Im either going to use great caution or not play oil at all for the time being.
With the dollar where it is now, you essentially have oil trading in the $90s vs. where it was a couple weeks ago. The powder keg is ready to blow here...I would suspect prior to year end, we might see the upper $90s...particularly with rising global tensions and world economies continuing their rapid pace of expansion.
Oil demand could continue to escalate rapidly if we see anything near the 2010 growth levels in 2011. I don't think supply can keep up.
With the same logic then if tomorrow they found the largest recoverable oil basin under Netherlands, enough to supply for 100 years, the price will still go to 150.
If tomorrow some moron in the government decided to triple the taxes on gas and kill the consumption, the price will still go to 150.
if tomorrow, something of likes of SARS reemerges and wipes out a billion people, the price will still go to 150.
if to morrow the fed gets abolished, and the fiscal conservatives take over and induce a necessary pain to the world economy to clean up the wasteful sh..., unemployment surges, people scramble to buy food, the price will still go to 150, right?
I mean, if no matter what, the price is gonna go to 150, and it's decided, then who are the morons that will sell you the oil for 85, or 95, or 100, or 149? Makes total sense, doesn't?
And Happy Thanksgiving to you too, and much of luck.
In reply, I said it is a speculator's game. There is a lot of money investing and confidence is high. The price of crude oil is not based on the fundamentals (high demand or low supply).
Just look at the figures: increase of 1.9M barrels (or 5M according to API), increase of gasoline-- all when the analysts were predicting declines. What happened? Crude oil increased! It is going up much higher until investor sentiment changes.
If there is a supply disruption, even if insignificant, the speculators will jump on this as a reason to increase the price per barrel even higher. And if the USD weakens, oil will increase as well.
Happy Thanksgiving from 8DIM Space Monkey!
In reply to:
you said: "Basically, oil demand is irrelevant."
and you said: "Get ready for $150 if there are any issues with supply"
Impeccable logic! great observations! so what dimension of space monkeys are you?
Oh man, Delta, now look what you've done, duuuude, you jinxed it!
I was hoping it'd get to 85, but it's already, retreating. Greenie do us all a favor don't show up till after thxgiving sometime next week, will you? Please, please.
oh yea and please just repeat after me: oil is a scarce commodity=>> the world economy is booming=>> people all over don't know how to spend their paychecks=>> they go out and buy stuff including barrels of oil that come with free ipads=>> businesses cant keep up with demand so they invest in capital improvements and inventory and buy gas=>> corporations, small businesses, fed gov, keep hiring and raising wages, because there are widespread shortages of labor=>> the chindians keep buying GM Gimmy's and adding "extended battery, eh, i mean fuel gas tank" options to their cars so they can fill 'em up and travel to mongolia to shop in malls==>> russians can't keep up with sending them oil and nat gas to blossoming Europe, where greeks and irish are prospering by new found hobby - blow up the banks=>> the russians then come here - from sea to shining sea - and buy up all the housing inventory for the next 3 years=>> the mexicans bring their families across as they and their families can now work in constructing new "green" mcmansions for the chindians and russians from the shores of florida to the forests of seatle=>> the only sad part is that crystal (or whatever that cows name is) palin will be going back to the moose hunting land, but fear not america, a new season is abound, you shall not be left to worry, remember to get your chips and coolaid, and thank uncle Benny for his wisdom, and cousin Barry for his bravery, just kick turbo Tim in the balls for his long ears, thats all folks.
God bless bourbon.
be careful what you wish for, Delta, if the reappearance of King Greenie brings about the resurgence of his twin sister Tef, this place will turn into Halloween party again. don't u enjoy the calmness we've had the last few weeks?....