China can't get enough of the black gold. China growth rate at 10%.
US dollar index should test 70 by summer.
$150 oil is almost a certainty.
My staff and I are going to take a monster position at 110.75 on a resistance break. Currently no position. We unloaded our latest investment at 109.95 from a 106 entry.
Misjudged the power of GS. This was a lack of concentration on my part. I clearly should have joined in the short when 110 fell. In hindsight it was an easy 5 points to the downside. Remember nothing goes straight up or down so the key is to get in part of the action. I missed 100% of the shortside but locked in 80% of the upside move from the 105.30 lows this week.
I won't be long again till I see that 110.75 break. I'll ride that move to 115 where I think we'll see consolidation for a week before the upside sudden move to 120. You won't any 5 point drops to the downside till we get really frothy in the 125 neighborhood. I'm going to enjoy both sides of the trade this time. Remember net bullish....the problem with the logic of a short is they are one dimensional.
sure, oil will just keep going up just like the market. Expect a nice correction as oil goes up from here. Oils $113 recent price will hit the pumps at the end of this next week. I don't know of anyone who is using more gas? High oil prices help very few, and hurt most others.
People can complain all they want about gas prices. One thing for sure is oil is inelastic. You're going to buy it whatever price it is. Even at $7 a gallon it's going to be used the same as if it was $3. Europe adjusted to high prices by changing the way they live. SUV's don't exist in Europe. Mass transit is common along with bicycles, mopeds, and the use of ones feet. In obeseville America people will block traffic for 5 minutes to wait for someone that's parked next to the grocery store because they can't phathom walking an extra 10 steps.
There is nothing other than cushing is full working in favor of a short. I've already listed the reasons oil is going to go up. Oil will crash one day if the FEDS start hiking rates. Middle East crisis calming down will also contribute to oil decline. I don't see either one of these happening in the next 6 months so till then oil is on a vertical path. The key is to sell the pops and buy the dips. I'm gonna take advantage of both this time around.