The Economist expects global oil consumption growth to average 1.6% in 2013-14
Oil Demand Accelerating on China, U.S. Growth
Recession Continues to Bite in Europe
Global oil demand this year is expected to accelerate at nearly double 2012's pace as stronger economies in China, Latin America and the U.S. offset sluggishness in Europe, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Consumption worldwide will average nearly 91 million barrels a day in 2013, up 1.5% from about 89.7 million barrels a day in 2012, Economist Intelligence Unit analysts said in an updated monthly forecast. Estimated 2013 consumption would be an all-time high for any year, based on industry data. Last year's use was up 0.8% from 2011.
Among the wealthiest nations and regions, demand trends for the European Union and the U.S. probably will diverge. The U.S. is now expected to post "modest, but still positive, growth… as the economy there stabilizes," the report said. Meanwhile, "recession continues to bite" in the EU, causing further contractions in demand.
U.S. demand is projected to grow 0.1%, compared with the small contraction the group estimated previously. EU consumption is forecast to decline 0.8%, while China's demand will climb an estimated 4.5%, to an average of 9.97 million barrels a day.
Note that global _oil_ production is stuck at about 75mb/d, so the additional ~15mb/d demand will have to be met with increased production of other liquids (biofuels, NGLs, etc), which have lower energy content, higher EROEI (energy return on energy investment) and typically higher cost.