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United States Oil ETF Message Board

  • manylumen manylumen Feb 20, 2013 9:21 AM Flag

    peak oil production vs peak oil consumption

    On the demand side we might have seen peak oil demand in USA at least for some time or at least until after ther recession. As for world peak oil demand its only going higher. Now as for production there is a peak oil and just because the recession has put off demand for a while the over all demand is going to continue to grow and production is going to top out. We all know its coming and its quite possible peak produciton or what we call peak oil has already happened.

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    • You probably won't see peak oil in "our" lifetime. In ten to 15 years, we will all be driving around in battery powered hot rods or using nat gas for transportation fuel......

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to toad4you22
      • Not unless they get better performance batteries and cheaper batteries. nat gas i agree. Think we see cng cars become more popular if all the ambitious estimates on nat gas reserves come to pass.
        We might have seen more cng cars if it were not for the lack of infrastructure. i also think there are safety challenges/concerns about cng cars in underground parking, tunnels etc. Perhaps once cng cars have been around in sufficient numbers for a time the safety of the technology gets acceptance. certainly cng and lng powered large vehicles are coming. the price of nat gas to oil is too way out for the current ratio to remain.

      • In which case, why would we not see peak oil?
        You are saying we will stop using much oil yet continue to produce more and more of it?
        If we're not using it for transportation anymore then why would we keep producing more of it every year?

        Or perhaps could it be that you are arguing about something you don't even understand the definition of?

    • "As for world peak oil demand its only going higher." "Now as for production there is a peak oil and just because the recession has put off demand for a while the over all demand is going to continue to grow and production is going to top out. We all know its coming"
      Maybe you think you do, but you base your opinion on nothing but "we all know it's coming". That's pretty weak. You don't know what's coming. I suggest you take your own advice ...
      "Okay to have hope " ... but hope is all it is.

      • 1 Reply to ecgberht
      • There are new oil consumers born every minute around the world still in population explosion mode. Now sure most of the worlds population uses far less oil per person than US, but they are increasing their need for oil. Just look at all the new car sales in former soviet union, India, China, probably soon African nations. so demand is likely to grow mid term and certainly long term. I dont see production growing long term, forget about frac being the saving grace. Major world oil fields are getting old and new finds are deeper more expensive and pobably with poor recovery rates. So short term who know and thats why one might be smarter to pick some yeild plays to make the wait easier. jmho

    • This "apparent" boom in US oil production using new drilling and enhanced recovery is only a last sprint and might fade out faster than many think. Dont see frac doing for oil what it did for nat gas. 'thinking we are setting up for a massive coiled spring of peak oil. when it happens hard to say. It is apparent that new oil costs are going higher, more expensive technology and more expensive wells etc. If price of oil does not remain at least $100 a significant amount of non-conventional oil could come off the market or get shut in. Many non-conventional oil projects have been put off/pushed back in time line already. next peak oil event is going to be massive. jmho. economy recovers and peak oil is back with a vengence. jmho.

 
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