Checked with the human resources of JPM, yes, there is such a person. He has been with JPM for over 3 years. Don't know which bank he worked before that, but he has been giving pretty good predictions for commodities including oil and natural gas.
As usual, oil will be below $95 by early September. Its the normal early August runup before the dump. Oil at $125 will get a nice market correction and a superior short. With a record supply in storage and a need for refineries to switch to winter oil in the next month this is just short term. Also, the oil manipulators are using the end and first part of month money inflows to up it. Gas on the west coast at the very lowest is $3.80 and most is over $4.
I don't know, I bought puts the last time this threatened $110, but I sniffed something in the air and took profits. Here we are back up again. It doesn't seem to make sense, the middle east turmoil doesn't involve oil-producing countries, and since when hasn't the middle east been in "turmoil"?
What seems to be happening is the elimination of the WTI differential, due to freer movement of oil out of Cushing. With more projects possibly coming on line, we could be looking at a permanent re-pricing of WTI. Brent's been pretty steady, it's possible WTI may hold above $100 as the norm, barring some big financial market shakeout, of course.
Normally on a day like this I might leap at a November $36 put on USO, but my fingers get a little warm when I reach for the enter key. I'm going to hold off, see what happens, maybe look for $112 as a near term top. I could be completely wrong of course, half of me says today is the top, and it will settle down to sub $105 in a few days. But I'd rather miss a profit than get burned.
Oil is finally joining with other asset bubbles. I wouldn't try to pick the top and short it. I would buy the dip. I won't be surprised to see $125 or even higher by the end of the year. It's still cheap compared to stocks and real estate. So much money went into oil there isn't much downside risk IMO. Money hasn't left since last December.