Most of the guesses about the impact of the government shutdown assume it will last a few days or a week. The fact is that this month is easy because most checks written on oct 1st were for sept. It is Nov 1st when it really starts to impact people in a very large way. Veterans, students, and a variety of programs can't write checks.
Even though essential services operate they lose support personal and vendors. The 4th qtr earnings will be doomed.
Well next week when people realize they cannot apply for passports, vacations to Yellowstone and other parks planned in advance have to be cancelled or government contractors cant get their checks people will be #$%$. On the flip side gas/oil should fall pretty hard and ill make a helluva profit. Fair exchange.
imo, best outcome is for Obama to wait till Oct 17th and if debt ceiling is not raised, he should just unilaterally tell Treasury to continue paying the bills (ie. ignore the debt ceiling). He has legal authority to do so, although no doubt it would create a constitutional crisis and there would be calls for impeachment, etc. Bill Clinton advised him to take that course last time around but Obama chose not to. But now with congress seemingly unfit to govern, I think he would have a lot of support (outside Tea Party fanatics who would call for impeachment) by taking that approach. Of course, he shouldn't hint in advance that he would do this as that would remove incentive for congress to make a deal, so we wouldn't know till Oct 17th if he plans to do it.