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Cosan Limited Message Board

  • dank062 dank062 Jun 30, 2010 8:46 PM Flag

    06/30/10: CZZ Thoughts

    Since the US IPO begin date of 9/4/2007. CZZ has a total of 712 trading days.

    What's interesting here is that the first 255 days of trading, from 9/4/2007 - 9/5/2008, CZZ never closed below 10 per share. Average close during this 255 day interval was 12.50 per share.

    We all know what happened in Sept of 2008. The economic meltdown was here...
    In addition sugar and ethanol prices/processing margins moved to unprofitable levels and the REAL was in the tank.

    By 10/27/2008 CZZ collapsed and moved to its all time low of $2.10 per share. That is an ugly move if you were long on Sept 5,2008. As it turns out it was also a great time time buy.

    Since 9/5/2008 through today there have been 457 trading days. lo close of 2.10 hi close of 10.90. There have been only 24 days in which CZZ closed above 10 per share. The above 10 close did not happen again until April of 2010.
    I supposed a more positive way to say this, is that CZZ has closed at 10 or above in 24 of the last 57 trading days..

    The REAL has stabilized and sugar and ethanol margins are more favorable than in the first 255 day period when CZZ never closed below 10 per share. In addition the CZZ has made some key acquisitions and it looks as though Shell and CZZ have a key strategic alliance soon to be approved by both companies.

    Their company is much stronger than the first 255 days of CZZ trading on the NYX...

    It baffles me as to why CZZ cannot hold 10 per share.

    My view is that with Shell as a partner, CZZ is undervalued by at least 25 percent if not 60 percent. CZZ should be trading above 10 per share and not below 10 per share.

    What gives? Even without Shell, CZZ should be trading above 10 per share.

    Is the market telling us that the corporate cultures of CZZ and Shell will not mix, therefore the partnership will be a no-go?

    Anyone have any thoughts/wisdom?

    Thanks in advance,

    Fresno, CA

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