The bond holders have been paid off, the majority of bank debt has been paid off, CD&R has a history of only investing in private companies.
A very plausible scenario is for NCS and CD&R to take the price down to as close to $1.28 as they can get and then buy out the OS and take the company private. In that case, all the bagholders will be paid a slight premium(5%) from market price(at that time) for their shares. EOY or early 2010 is my guess.
Basic stock investing rule: Never try and catch a falling knife, and especially one with this much baggage.
There you go again Dave. Hey bud if you are not holding this stock and seems you are saying that you r not even interested to getting in then why this unrelenting bashing.
As though your bashing based on extreme speculation about current event does not fulfill your unholy goals now you are going out of your way speculating about 2010 and using that to bash NCS even more an attempting to scare off investors.
I think you are not being honest and have some MAJOR financial inetrests here and are either trying to see share price lowered so you can get in at a better price or else you are short the stock, etc.
In my many years experience no one with any business sense, and you seem to have that, spends so much of their time day after day and week after week on an stocks board getting into every detail of that company's financial, etc without having ANY vested financial and specially being so adamant about his views (this specially in the light of many stocks you claim you hold and if you had no interest here you would be at those other dozen stocks you hold.
While I don't like name calling I've seen some here refer to you as fraud. You need to realize that you can stick your head in the sand and deny all you want but even dumbest person on this board knows you have a vested financial interest here and/or ulterior motives. Hiding you true motives behind denials while bashing this stock more than any other poster is beneath integrity of the lowest.
But going back to your claim of taking the company private is a none-starter. CD&R also very much gets involved with companies with the goal of getting them sold. I believe this is very much in the cards and not simply taking it private. There is a reason why over the last 5 days nearly 45 million shares unloaded by the hedge funds have been gladly picked up by the institutions and insiders. Do you really think these folks and specially the insiders are that ignorant?
If you ask me I think you most likely know that taking the company private is not even in the cards. Or else may be you are more of a newbie than we thought and have been fooled by your level of sophistication.
Please know that this post is not intended to insult you or start anything but my sincere observations.
Consider my posts as warnings to people thinking of buying NCS, but who may not know all the details...of which all are very bad.
It's too late for the new breed of longs(post deal). But I tried even then too. Just ask Modern.
Besides, this is a very interesting story and should be a lesson to all of how NOT to invest.
CDR has to own the stock for 30 months... so all talk of taking private is premature.
CDR could have just bought the bond holders out at 160 millions in NOV instead of paying future market prices when the economy is doing better.
I think CDR wants to sell their share all right... but not to themselves... to some one else... but that is also 30 months minimum away...
I do not think it is rational to think that now that the risk of bankruptcy is completely removed... removed for now and removed for years... that this company's stock price will converge towards the price the bond holders paid when it was broke... it is not a realistic concept.
That explanation by NCSwillfly that Hedgefunds needed to sell to raise cash is completely logical...Hedge funds are starving for cash wich they need to cash-out investors... I know that from owning ETFC and their relationship with Citadel who despite their size was also starving for cash and had sell what they clearly did not want to sell to meet their obligations to investors.
buried deep in the 743-page Form 424B3
Filed: October 19, 2009
Convertibility and Anti-Dilution Adjustments
To the extent that there is a sufficient number of authorized and unissued (or issued and included in treasury) and otherwise unreserved shares of common stock (or, if approved by the holders of Series B convertible preferred stock, other capital stock of the Company that is generally identical to the common stock), each holder of shares of Series B convertible preferred stock will have a conversion right, at any time and from time to time, at such holder’s
option, to convert all or any portion of such holder’s shares of Series B convertible preferred stock into shares of common stock (or such other capital stock). Upon a holder’s election to exercise the conversion right, each share of Series B convertible preferred stock will be converted into a number of shares of common stock equal to the quotient of (1) the sum of (a) the liquidation preference and (b) the accrued dividends of such share as of the date of conversion, divided by (2) the conversion price of such share in effect at the time of conversion.
To the extent and for so long as any shares of Series B convertible preferred stock are issued and outstanding, the Company has agreed to at all times reserve and keep available an amount of authorized and unissued common stock equal to 110% of the number of shares of common stock issuable upon conversion of the then issued and outstanding shares of Series B convertible preferred stock.
The transfer limitation period means any time during the period from the closing until the later of (1) the 30-month anniversary of the closing and (2) the occurrence of certain events relating to our failure to cause the CD&R Investors’ nominees or designees to be elected to our board of directors or the removal of such persons without cause other than by action or request from the CD&R Investors.
Can you show me where they are restricted from taking NCS private for 30 months?
Hedge funds that got into NCS at already depressed prices are not likely to sell if they think that the value will go up. What you're saying is that these hedge funds sold NCS at a big loss, since it's lower than it's been since March. That is NOT logical at all. It doesn't work that way.