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NCI Building Systems Inc. Message Board

  • drink.guinness drink.guinness Nov 9, 2009 7:56 PM Flag

    decoro

    não vejo problema en postear mensagens en idiomas além do inglês - quando têm a ver com o tema. eu, pelo menos, gostaria de aprender uns termos de finanças em espanhol.

    mas não vejo nenhum sentido em postear porcaria

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    • bullshoot,

      Yes, it's too bad BEE had to sell the Mexican Four Seasons. I believe they have a 50% stake in another resort down there though.

      No need to buy BEE now, I think any recovery for them and other hotel/resort operators is well down the road.

      IMO...

    • Dave/Modern,

      Thoughts on BEE as of today....

      I just read that they sold their Mexico City property (Four Seasons) to Meridia Capital for $54 million or $225,000 per room.

      I am sure you would agree that in their portfolio of properties the Four Seasons are on the highest end of price per room....if you apply this price to their 8,118 rooms remaining and net out their debt, equity is negative...

      I've been thinking of investing in BEE but it would seem they have significant downside at this point...I realize there are no immediate debt maturities but I am worried that the bluk of their portfolio was built over the boom years and just paid to much for them....they paid $700,000+ per room for the Washigton DC Four Seasons...they just sold a similar property for $225,000 per room...yikes!

      Thoughts?

    • Modern,

      When ETFC went from $1 to $2+ it was during a big bounce back by the stock market. Otherwise it would have floundered.

      Ask yourself why NCS has actually been going down steadily in the midst of a strong market..."new balance sheet" notwithstanding.

      Hint: Investors realize that the partial cleaning up of the balance sheet came at an entirely unacceptable cost: mega dilution, loss of control of the company, massive selling of millions of new cheap shares, business prospects still very poor, downsizing, loss of biz to competitors, likelihood of being taken private, etc, etc.

      Now you're reminiscing about yur past successful trades...that doesn't bode well.

      I made my money on DRYS, LVS, NCS, and TRMA...and am up almost double on MTW($6 to $11).

    • And Dave... look at the volume today... it is no different than before the dilution... if not a lot lower... To me it looks like the shorts and the longs have dug in their heels and are waiting it out...

    • I do not feel any pressure to act... not with their new balance sheet.

      Dave... this reminds me of E-trade after Citadel converted its bonds to stock... it lingered at a dollar for a long time... I bought it then... then it went eventually to a $2.30... I sold most at $2.00 and the rest at $1.85 and $1.75...

      ETFC was the safest money I have ever made... every dollar was invested after the company balance sheet was righted... but some how it took time for the new reality to take hold.

      Analyst now think it will go to $2.30 in 12 months and could be bought by Ameritrade for $3 so it is still an attractive play and I could buy half my holdings back with the profits I made there.

      ETFC and BEE where two stocks that you did not buy big into... and where big money makers for me. NCS is a stock that you can make 20% by selling call with practically no risk and potentially make 100% if it jumps on that short covering... what is there to think?

    • Modern,

      Personally, I don't think NCS will "cross that threshold of $3."

      I think they will take the company private at $1.50 to $2, once the bondholders have all sold.

      There's no such thing as 'business as usual' when you sell a 70% owneship stake in a company, especially a private equity firm.

      It's over for NCS from a stock investment standpoint, all over. If you new shareholders can get a fluky bump to $3, consider it a gift. But with the DOW rallying from 6k to 10k+, NCS has actually gone down...to < $2.

      Writing's on the wall, no time for dreaming.

    • Dave... I cannot judge when I will be ready to sell something until the fullness of time...

      But I think most posters here have to seize they gun and hold the trigger once we cross that threshold of $3... and pull it when they feel they have made the best deal they can...

      I personally think that we will see a very high price soon followed by a lower price latter... and that an agile trader will be able to sell into the peak and buy back at the valley the same stock... that would make it virtually a gift... and then move the original capital else where. That is one scenario that would be very favorable to me... and to every one that is prepared for that.

      Dave... I bought BEE at less than a $1.30... sold it at a $2.85... bought it back at $2.20 and sold it again at $2.45.... and now I am waiting to see if I can buy it again at a $1.40 or less... that is what I would like to do with NCS too... the stock you end up owning is free.

    • Again? First I heard of him was when he called me a peckerwood, something like that: )

      No worries, I was taking a contrarian view here, it goes with the territory.

      I have a new found respect for bullshoot and I'm now listening.

    • Modern,

      So now you're ready to sell at $3? I can see you've lowered your original estimates considerably. If your ave cost is $2.60, this is a waste. It has now become a "don't lose money" excercise.

    • I know... and I think that your post is also important... so we are not tainted by this board as mindless boosters...

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