1st: take not of this market saying seriously: "STAY AWAY from May in MAY" which is high chance to be ugly or very ugly for the market.
end: in my study, most of mondays last few months, market is red, redder and reddest. the trading pattern may repeat tomorrow. that is why i was out of FAS last minutes last friday and ready to buy FAZ if uptrend momentum is confirmed in early trade monday (too much fear to hold FAS/FAZ over the weekend)
i rushed out of FAS last 2 minutes from the close last friday at rebound (bought at panic sell), so 6c green. lucky for not being red.
hold cash and ready for next big move monday. it will be very exciting and interesting market. so get ready to bet on the right side (either into FAZ or FAS).
my take is: market and FAS will plunge on monday as uncertainties and fear before stress test results are to be released. as speculated, the results will be sent to banks on tuesday, then publicly to the market thursday. this time gap will make market nervous. MMs will take this great opportunity of uncertainty and fear as an excuse to knock down market, especially financial sector, hard, harder and hardest. they need to see and catch bottom fish as well. so they need to punch down the market hard and restart the cycle of "up and down" game.
just watch and see this being played out UNLESS some bullish news popping up before the open. WHO raised alert level to 6 (its max)on swine flu could have another big blow to the market. remember what SARS did to the market, all happening just in a big SUDDEN.
I will bet, 80% chance that FAZ will win out FAS on monday. if market is very ugly or uglier than thought. this downtrend will continue on early trade tuesday and will not get reversed unless a leak of good results from stress test given to the banks involved. if the leak is bad, will be disaster for the market on tuesday and wed, then wait for it spublic announcement on thursday
be patient and no push. in early trade monday, 80% chance, i will buy into uptrend momentun into FAZ, 20% into FAS if panic sell sets in.
no position in FAS/FAZ, good luck to all and wish most of you laughing all the way to the bank MONDAY.