Did you reduce your estimates by the number of jobs that will be created by the Cap and Trade bill? The gov't will be including them in their numbers, you should probably do the same. Make sure you also include the 165,000 jobs that Obama's stimulus plan has created to date. Granted, nobody can identify those specifically, we know it was accomplished because he told us.
The country is losing a minimum of 1.2 million jobs a month. These are fresh jobs lost, not due to attrition/turnover. Jobs that are not likely to return in the next 6-12 months.
Attrition/turnover average is @ 1.2 million jobs a month during good economic times. I think the attrition/turnover is well below that average because people are on their best behaviour and are actively trying to keep their jobs and know what trouble they may face if they do lose theirs. My guess on actual attrition/turnover on a monthly basis is 600,000 per month.
If that number is correct then the US is actually losing closer to 2 million jobs per month that are not going to be replaced with a new hire for 6-12 months or longer.
One of the easy ways to skew the unemployment numbers for the government is the attrition/turnover average per month.
Think about it: I bet that tardiness are at it's lowest levels in history. Long lunches are extrememly short if not skipped all together. Kissing ass is reigning supreme. Fake smiles are everywhere. The real smiles happen at the end of the day when people realize that they made it another day.
Just my thoughts as always.